The global financial crisis has caused demand destruction for commodities which in turn has sent the price of oil –Angola’s main revenue source– on a downward spiral. We note that Angola is set to suffer in 2009 as lower oil prices, reduced private investment, and curtailed government spending conspire to reduce real GDP growth. Angola's economy minister, Manuel Nunes, announced in mid-February that the country is expected to register growth of over 3% in 2009. We are more bearish, forecasting economic expansion of 2.6%. This will have an impact on all strata of the economy, including the construction and infrastructure industry value.

In BMI’s Q209 Angola Infrastructure Report we forecast industry value real annual growth for 2009 of 2.2%. Growth will remain on the positive side and BMI believes that there are opportunities in the transport and downstream oil and gas sector; though the growth rate for 2009 is a marked decline from the double digit numbers that were registered the previous years. Growth in government capital investment, which in previous years was fueled by rising oil windfalls, will also decelerate from 50% in 2008 to 19% in 2009.

Preparations for the Africa Cup of Nations football tournament in 2010 can prove to be a key thrust for the infrastructure sector. Angola reportedly plans to spend US$1bn in preparation for hosting the 2010 African Nations Cup football tournament. Among the top investments will be four new stadiums built by China's Shanghai Urban Construction Group. Meanwhile, the national airport administrator Empresa de Navegaçao Aerea (Enana) is investing US$400mn in the rehabilitation of all airports in the country.

We are skeptical to what extent the full US$1bn can be absorbed by the sector in a period of about 10 months, given institutional deficiencies and the acute shortage of building materials. It nevertheless represents an upside to our forecasts.

Some of the key international players with a hand in the Angolan infrastructure sector include BCEG, CEGELEC, CGOC, Odebrecht and Prezioso. To this list Portugal’s Mota Engil was added in Q109, when the company announced that is looking to diversify its operations in Angola.

China’s presence in Angola will also play a pivotal role in the development of infrastructure as the Asian giant pursues its strategy of oil-for-infrastructure in the continent. Some of China’s largest companies including Shanghai Urban Construction Group, Sinohydro and China Railways are actively inlvolved in building Angola’s infrastructure.

Angola's political risk profile received an upgrade following the recent smooth passing of the parliamentary polls, but the nation is not out of the woods yet. Difficult times lie ahead, with falling fiscal revenues and a presidential election in the pipeline.