The newly published Brazil Power Report forecasts that the country will by 2013 account for 41.31% of Latin America regional power generation. The Latin America power generation estimate for 2008 is 1,130 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 2.5% over the previous year. We are forecasting growth in regional generation to 1,320TWh by 2013, representing a rise of 16.9%.

Latin American thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated at 453TWh, accounting for 40.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 523TWh, implying 15.5% growth, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 39.6% – in spite of environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Brazil’s thermal generation in 2008 was 69.5TWh, or 15.35% of the regional total. By 2013, it is expected to account for 16.61% of thermal generation.

For Brazil, oil was in 2008 the dominant fuel, accounting for 46.2% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by hydro at 36.1%, gas at 9.9%, coal at 6.4% and nuclear at 1.4%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 726mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, or 14.5% growth. Brazil’s 2008 market share of 35.97% is set be 37.31% by 2013. Its 13.9TWh of nuclear demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 18.0TWh by 2013, with its share of the regional nuclear market expected to rise from 44.41% to 46.15%.

Brazil is still ranked first, well above nearest rival Chile, in the updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, thanks to its vast market size and excellent growth prospects. It scores highest in the region for installed generating capacity, electricity generation, PED and its use of renewables (largely hydro-power). Certain country risk factors offset some of the industry strength, but the country seems destined to remain at the head of the table for the foreseeable future.

The report now forecasts average annual real GDP growth of 3.04% between 2009 and 2013, with the 2009 forecast being a decline of 0.60%. The population is expected to expand from 192mn to 204mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase significantly (by 46% and 9%, respectively). Brazil’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 424TWh in 2008 to 491TWh by the end of 2013, providing theoretical export potential that is cancelled out largely by transmission losses. The report assumes 3.5% annual growth in electricity generation. Between 2008 and 2018, we forecast an increase in Brazilian electricity generation of 50.3%, which is above average for the Latin America region. This equates to 25.2% in the 2013-2018 period, up from 20.0% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to rise from 18.8% in 2008-2013 to 21.1%, representing 43.8% for the entire forecast period. An anticipated increase of 47.1% in hydro-power use during 2008-2018 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 68.6% between 2008 and 2018, with nuclear consumption up by 43.9%. More details of the longer-term the power forecasts can be found later in this report.