In BMI’s view, China is arguably the most attractive emerging pharmaceutical market. Though to 2013, we are forecasting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.45%. Annual per-capita spending will rise from US$27.60 to US$54.40. Spending as a percent of GDP is expected to increase from 0.97% to 1.16%. Key drivers of market expansion are the introduction of universal health insurance, a booming economy, more chronic diseases, and an ageing population. By 2018, annual pharmaceutical sales will have reached a staggering US$132.7bn.

China’s biopharmaceutical R&D sector is emerging rapidly. This was demonstrated in September 2009 when the State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA) approved the world’s first swine flu vaccine, Sinovac Biotech’s Panflu. As is the norm with newly-introduced pandemic preventatives, the first batches will be sold to government, which will then distribute them to priority groups. These could include front-line healthcare workers, heads of the military and senior Communist party members. In the global context, perhaps the most promising untapped pharmaceutical sector is China’s rural provinces and low-tier conurbations.

Drugmakers operating in the world’s most populous country have traditionally focused their efforts on the relatively affluent east coast cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai. However, with the advent of far-reaching healthcare reforms and the introduction of universal health insurance, enlightened pharmaceutical firms are looking west for massive sales and profit opportunities. For the Q409 update of this report, China has maintained its position in BMI’s Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings. The country is the fourth most attractive market in Asia Pacific, ahead of Malaysia and behind South Korea. China’s score of 57.4 is above both the regional (52.2) and global average (51.2).

High scores are recorded for Pharmaceutical Market, Country Risks and Market Risks; however, the country is let down by Country Structure, which comprises, among other factors, bureaucracy and a poor legal framework. AstraZeneca is the leading multinational in China in terms of Q109 revenue. The Anglo-Swedish firm recorded sales of CNY1.08bn (US$158mn), which was a highly impressive quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) hike of 30.7%. Worryingly for its competitors, no other company ranked in the top ten posted higher growth. AstraZeneca’s leading product was the proton pump inhibitor Losec (omeprazole).