The new India Retail report predicts that total retail sales will grow from less than US$300bn in 2007 to almost US$711bn by 2013. Strong underlying economic growth, population expansion, the increasing wealth of individuals and the rapid construction of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth. As well as an ever-expanding middle- and upper-class consumer base, there will also be opportunities in India’s tier II and tier III cities. The greater availability of personal credit and a growing vehicle population that provides improved mobility also contribute to a trend towards annual retail sales growth of 18% in US dollar terms.

India’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) was US$1.17trn in 2008. Average annual GDP growth of 6.5% is predicted to 2013. With population increasing from 1.19bn in 2008 to an estimated 1.27bn by 2013, GDP per capita is predicted to grow nearly 59% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$1,563. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$594 in 2008 to US$1,104 by 2013.

The growth in the overall retail market will be driven, in large part, by the explosion in the organised retail market. By this, we mean the familiar Western concept of chain outlets, department stores, supermarkets, etc. According to Investment Commission of India (ICI) data, this segment in 2006 accounted for US$12.1bn of sales, or 4.6% of the total retail segment. The report forecasts that organised retail sales will reach US$76.2bn by 2013, representing 10.7% of the total.

The second factor is the success that local firms have had in developing the modern concept. Domestic retailers such as Reliance Industries and Pantaloon will continue to invest heavily in growing their store networks and improving their in-store offerings, and the impact they have had on growth will only be boosted further with the arrival of expansion-oriented multinationals.

Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales in India are forecast to undergo explosive growth over the forecast period. The report predicts that sales through modern retail outlets will increase by 777.4% to reach US$27.2bn in 2013. This phenomenal forecast is a consequence of India’s dramatic and rapid shift from independently owned small-scale retail to large-scale modern outlets; although it must also be noted that this growth is forecast to come from a very low starting point.

Retail sales for the universe of Asian countries in 2008 were an estimated US$2.04trn. China and India alone in 2008 accounted for almost 93% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to reach 94% by 2013. Growth in regional retail sales for the period 2008 to 2013 is put at 105%, or an annual average 17.6%. China should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by Indonesia and India. For India, the estimated 2008 market share of 17.5% is expected to decrease to 16.9% by 2013.