A critical issue for Serbia’s security in 2008 was its position on the former province of Kosovo. Serbia lost control of Kosovo after a NATO-led military campaign in 1999, to stop a two-year conflict there between Serbian forces and an ethnic Albanian rebellion. After nine years under international control, the Albanian administration in Kosovo declared its independence in February 2008 and the debate on how to respond led to the collapse of the existing Belgrade administration in March. Following elections in May a new government was formed as an alliance including the pro-Western Democratic Party and its one time opponent, the Socialist Party, formerly led by the late Slobodan Miloševiæ. The new ruling coalition set itself two key goals: membership of the European Union and rejection of Kosovo independence. Many observers, including the Serbian opposition parties, argued that these two goals were mutually incompatible, given that a majority of EU states had during the course of 2008 formally recognised the independence of Kosovo.



In December the opposition parties sought to bring a no-confidence motion against the government over its Kosovo policy but it was seen as unlikely to succeed, as they could not command a majority within the 250-seat legislature. The opposition parties were arguing from a nationalist position and accusing the government of abandoning Kosovo by agreeing to the deployment of an EU police and justice mission in the territory (known as EULEX). The government had at first rejected the EU mission proposal earlier in 2008 but changed its position after the terms of the deployment were changed to keep police, judiciary and customs in Serb-dominated areas of Kosovo under a United Nations umbrella. The same institutions would come under Kosovan control in Albanian dominated areas.



Despite the bloody conflicts of the 1990s and the often uneasy peace that followed, in recent years it became clear that the process of Balkan fragmentation had not necessarily run its full course – with important implications for Serbian defence and security. In 2006 Serbia and Montenegro, the remaining rump of what was once Yugoslavia, split into two separate states, a division which took place peacefully.



Kosovo’s declaration of independence followed in early 2008. This posed a serious dilemma for Serbia, caught between accepting the new realities and trying to fight a rearguard action against them. There remained a danger of a new ‘domino effect’ that would heighten ethnic and regional tensions among small Balkan states, each lacking the size or the economies of scale to develop efficient and sustainable defence industries of their own.



Following the fall of Slobodan Miloševiæ and the re-integration of Serbia into the international community, the security situation improved significantly. Nonetheless, continued uncertainty over the status of Kosovo, problems with the ethnic Albanian minority in southern Serbia and trans-national organised crime in the Balkans have all contributed to continued instability.



The Serbian and Montenegrin defence industries were in a state of flux following the union’s split. They had, however, begun to continue in the same direction as the union prior to the split. The union was keen to reform and modernise its armed forces and both new states are seeking to continue this trend. However, the lack of consensus in the political elite, as well as some reluctance within the military itself, has led to only slow and tentative progress. Under the split, Serbia maintained the membership of international organisations. Montenegro is now working towards adjusting its armed forces to meet NATO standards.



The military industrial complex was already struggling to recover lost production capacity and potentially lucrative contracts, after the destruction of recent wars and international arms embargoes – the split is likely to only exasperate the struggle for the medium term. As they find their feet both defence industries will have to attempt to increase competitiveness on the foreign market through the separation of civilian and military programmes, working towards cost-effectiveness.



Serbia and Montenegro Security SWOT