Short-Term Outlook Negative… Singapore’s tourism industry experienced a difficult first half to 2009. Visitor arrivals were down by 11.5%, to just 4.51mn in January-June. The Singapore Tourist Board (STB) attributed the poor performance primarily to the global economic crisis, but with arrivals from China and Japan also reduced due to the effects of the H1N1 (swine flu) pandemic.

Over the first six months of 2009, Singapore’s top five visitor-generating markets were Indonesia (766,000), China (457,000), Australia (376,000), India (361,000) and Malaysia (317,000), accounting for over 50% of the total. Vietnam (up 13.4%), the Philippines (up 3%), Malaysia (up 1.8%) and Germany (up 1.3%) were the fastest growing source markets in H109, which the STB attributed to strong marketing campaigns and, in the case of Vietnam, aggressive airline promotions.

Given this disappointing start to the year, we have made downward revisions to our forecasts for arrivals data this year. From a previous forecast of 9.9mn visitors, we now believe that 9.12mn is more likely.

…But Longer-Term Prognosis Remains Positive Although 2009 will be difficult for Singapore’s tourism industry, there are reasons to remain positive for the medium-to-long term, as the global economy recovers. In particular, the opening of the two integrated resorts, at Marina Bay in 2009 and Sentosa in 2010, should help the island attract new tourists. Also, in 2011 Singapore will host the first Youth Olympics and open a new International Cruise Terminal.

Integrated Resorts Opening Soon In June, the first details surrounding some of the hotel rooms on offer at the new SGD6.59bn Sentosa integrated resort were unveiled. Showrooms for the Maxims Tower, Hotel Michael, Festive Hotel and the Hard Rock Hotel Singapore were opened for public viewing. The 120-room Maxims Tower and 470- room Hotel Michael are both pitched at the luxury end of the market. The 398-room Festive Hotel is pitched at the family market, with brightly coloured décor and loft sleeping areas in the bedrooms for children. The 364-room Hard Rock Hotel Singapore is pitched at the young adult market. The other two hotels at the resort are the Equarius Hotel and Spa Villas. Bookings for the hotels opened in H209. Other attractions at Sentosa will include a Universal Studios theme park, a casino and the world’s largest oceanarium. BMI believes this and other new resorts will do much to significantly boost Singapore’s tourism industry from 2010 onwards.