Relations between Slovakia and its neighbour Hungary were tense at various points in 2008, with the treatment of the Hungarian-speaking minority in Slovakia (which represents around 10% of the population) a point of contention between the two countries. Bratislava also had concerns about the treatment of Slovak speakers in Hungary. Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany and his Slovak opposite number, Robert Fico, met in the border town of Komarno in November and pledged to promote ‘good neighbourly relations’, while opposing all forms of extremism, nationalism and intolerance.

However, both men also disagreed, with Fico accusing Gyurcsany of not doing enough to stop Hungarian radical groups ‘exporting fascism and nationalism’ to his country. Earlier in the month Slovak police had arrested over 20 Hungarian far-right activists after they marched through Slovak villages wearing military-style uniforms. Speaking at the same news conference Gyurcsany countered that ‘many of us think in Hungary that Slovak politics is not only flirting with nationalism but has become engaged to it’.

The far-right Slovak National Party (SNS) has been part of Fico’s ruling coalition since elections in 2006; one of its main policy priorities is the defence of national culture and identity. The Slovakian Prime Minister said he would distance himself from any SNS rhetoric that might be seen as defaming Hungary or its politicians but at the same time served notice that the composition of his government was not a matter for neighbours to criticise or influence. ‘Slovakia is a sovereign country and the Slovak government will be created in Bratislava based on election results and nobody will interfere, neither Brussels, not Washington, Moscow or Budapest’ Fico said. The tension between the two countries was also expressed in sport. Police beat Hungarian soccer fans at a game in Slovakia, which led to protest demonstration in Budapest, where the Slovak flag was burnt.

Slovakia’s underlying defence and security position in 2008 remained strong, as reflected in our ratings.

The coalition government under Prime Minister Robert Fico had a comfortable majority and was doing reasonably well in the opinion polls despite concerns over slower economic growth in 2009. EU and NATO membership underpin Slovakian security; there are no known domestic terrorist organisations.

There are of course, some issues of concern. As noted, relations with the ethnic Hungarian community remain tense; nationalist sentiment on both sides can shade into chauvinism and even racism – a danger also present in relations with the Roma minorities. BMI takes the view that these dangers will be kept under control not least because of the country’s membership of the EU, which imposes a number of obligations in terms of the observation of human rights.

Since entry into NATO, Slovakia has been undertaking a significant force modernisation and reduction programme, which is taking up much of the defence budget. Although progressing, the process is costly and future alliance commitments may strain the armed forces and their budget. One example is the pressing need to upgrade the military air transport fleet. Slovakia’s professionalization programme is proving successful; the Slovakian army became fully professional in January 2006 after mandatory national service ended in December 2005. The Slovak defence industry has undergone a protracted transition; a downsized industry is in a good position to seek out new markets, while further privatisation and co-operation agreements between larger Slovakian firms and multinationals are likely.

Although Slovakia is considerably cushioned and supported in many aspects by NATO and the EU, Prime Minister Fico will have to act carefully to maintain the country’s present progress. So far Slovakia has mastered a transition from a centrally planned economy to a modern market economy. Militarily, Slovakia has to modernise to adopt NATO and EU standards of equipment and training, which requires funds that are not always easy to find in the current economic climate.