Executive Summary 6

SWOT Analysis ......8

Iran Political SWOT . 8

Iran Economic SWOT ...... 9

Iran Business Environment SWOT ... 10

Iran Energy Market Overview 11

Global Oil Market Overview 15

Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) . 16

Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) ..... 17

Oil Price Outlook 18

Waiting For A Correction ... 18

Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2007/08 . 19

Revised Forecasts ...... 19

Table: Oil Price Forecasts ...... 20

Regional Market Overview ......21

Oil Supply And Demand ...... 21

Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d) .. 22

Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d) ..... 23

Oil: Downstream 24

Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) .... 24

Gas Supply And Demand .... 25

Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm) ..... 25

Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm) . 26

Liquefied Natural Gas 27

Table: Middle East LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) ...... 27

Business Environment Ranking .28

Middle East Region 28

Composite Scores .. 28

Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating ...... 29

Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating . 30

Upstream Scores ... 30

Downstream Scores 31

Iran Upstream Rating – Overview ... 31

Iran Upstream Rating – Potential Returns 31

Iran Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns .... 31

Iran Downstream Rating – Overview . 32

Iran Downstream Rating – Potential Returns .... 32

Iran Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns 32

Business Environment 33

Legal Framework 33

Infrastructure.. 34

Labour Force.. 35

Foreign Investment Policy .. 36

Tax Regime . 37

Industry Forecast Scenario ......38

Oil and Gas Reserves . 38

Oil Supply and Demand ...... 38
Gas Supply and Demand ..... 40
LNG 41
Refining and Oil Products Trade . 42
Revenues/Import Costs . 43
Table: Iran Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts .. 44
Other Energy .. 45
Table: Iran Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts ...... 46
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario ...... 46
Long-term Oil & Gas Outlook 46
Macroeconomic Outlook ...48
Table: Iran – Economic Activity ...... 49
Regional Case Study .50
Competitive Landscape .53
Executive Summary 53
Table: Key Players – Iranian Oil & Gas Sector 54
Overview/State Role ... 54
Table: Key Upstream Operators – Iran Oil & Gas Sector... 56
Table: Key Downstream Operators – Iran Energy Sector ... 56
Company Monitor .....57
National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) 57
National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC) 61
Eni Iran .... 64
Total Iran . 66
Shell Development Iran 69
StatoilHydro – Summary 72
Inpex – Summary .. 72
Lukoil – Summary . 72
PTTEP/CNPC – Summary ...... 73
ONGC/OVL – Summary . 73
OMV – Summary ... 73
BP – Summary ...... 74
Sinopec – Summary . 74
Gazprom – Summary ..... 74
Glossary of Terms ....75
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology ....76
Introduction 76
Ratings Overview 76
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure 77
Indicators . 77
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology 78
Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-term forecasts .....81
Global Oil Demand 81
Global Oil Demand (000b/d) .. 81
Global Oil Production (000b/d) 82
Global Oil Supply ...... 82
Global Gas Demand .. 83
Global Gas Demand (bcm) ..... 83
Global Gas Supply ..... 83
Global Gas Production (bcm) . 84
Regional Oil Demand 85 Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d) .... 85 Regional Oil Supply ... 85 Middle East Oil Production (000b/d) . 86 Regional Refining Capacity 86 Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) ...... 87 Regional Gas Demand . 87 Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm) 88 Regional Gas Supply .. 88 Middle East Gas Production (bcm) .. 89 Iran Country Overview 89 Iran Energy Outlook .. 90 Iran Oil & Gas – Long-term Forecasts ..... 90 Iran Other Energy – Long-term Forecasts 91 Methodology & Risks To Forecasts ...... 91 BMI Forecast Modelling .93 How we generate our industry forecasts . 93 Energy Industry 94 Cross checks ... 94 Sources .... 94

Purchase Information