The Coming Squeeze: Commercial Aerospace Programs in Brazil, Canada, China, Japan & Russia

A review of Commercial Aerospace Programs in Brazil, Canada, China, Japan & Russia. This report summarizes current and planned aircraft programs in each of these countries and the potential impact of those programs on the commercial aerospace market.

The report provides insight into emerging programs ranging from the five countries, including China's COMAC C919, Japan's Kawasaki YPX, Canada's CSeries and Russia's UAC MS-21, and their potential impact on Boeing and Airbus. The 57-page study also examines the new regional jet programs: China's ARJ21, Japan's MRJ and Russia's Superjet, and the impacts faced by the four current players, Airbus Boeing, Embraer, and Bombardier, to meet this new competition.

Among the conclusions in the study:

Airbus and Boeing currently have about an 88% market share in the 100- to 200-seat single-aisle market segment. This market share could be cut in half to about 40% if market forecasts offered by the emerging competitors bear any relationship to reality.

Technology transfers by the current Big 4-Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer-are enabling these new competitors.

Airbus and Boeing will likely choose to re-engine their stalwart A320 and 737 families as an interim solution to meeting the new competition, while continuing to develop advanced-technology replacement for introduction in the 2020 decade.

The sub-70 seat regional jet market is rapidly losing attractiveness. Bombardier is considering larger turboprops and Mitsubishi is considering a larger version of its MRJ.

Embraer faces a tough decision about what to do with its E-Jet series, which is still relatively new to market, to meet the competition from Bombardier's CSeries.