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Greece Agribusiness Report Q2 2010
Market |
Agriculture, Farming & Raw Materials |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Greece |
Published |
10 February 2010 |
Number of Pages |
67 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
With an economic crisis playing out and a programme of government austerity measures underway, in January 2010 Greek farmers launched a wave of protests. Thousands of rice, corn and wheat growers blocked main roads and border crossings, demanding a freeze on debt repayments, fuel subsidies and minimum crop prices for their produce. The protests highlight the desperation felt by many Greek grains producers, who say they are unable to break even with grain prices at such low levels. We believe the crisis and the government's austerity programme are likely to push many small producers out of business. In the Greece Agribusiness Report for Q210, we look at how the economic crisis will affect production and consumption of grains and other key agricultural commodities.
Reduced investment in production is expected to affect production levels of a number of key commodities. In 2009/2010, we forecast wheat production of 1.61mn tonnes, down by 12.1% year-onyear (y-o-y). This figure is 63,000 tonnes less than we forecast in the previous report. Over the forecast period through to 2014, we expect production to reach just 1.29mn tonnes by 2013/2014, a fall of 29.6%. This figure is 44,000 tonnes less than in the Q110 report. In 2009/2010, we now expect corn production to fall to 2.31mn tonnes (156,000 tonnes less than forecast in Q1). Over the forecast period, we expect production to fall by 7.1% to 2.19mn tonnes (265,000 tonnes less than forecast in Q1).
The economic crisis will affect Greek consumers' wallets and demand for wheat, corn and barley is likely to suffer. Consequently, we have revised down our forecasts for 2010-2014. We expect wheat consumption to come in at 1.61mn tonnes this year, down slightly from our last report. Over the forecast period, we expect consumption to fall by 5.1%, to 1.54mn tonnes in 2014. This will make more wheat imports necessary and a negative trade balance is expected from 2011.
In livestock, we have revised down our forecasts for production and consumption of pork and beef over the 2009-2014 period. In 2009, we estimate pork production was 114,000 tonnes. For 2010, we expect this figure to fall to 108,000 tonnes, down slightly on Q1's forecast. By 2014, we expect pork production to have fallen to 88,000 tonnes (2,000 tonnes less than forecast last quarter), a total slump of 22.4% over the forecast period. Demand will fall too - by 2014 demand will have dropped to 292,000 tonnes, a 4.8% decrease over the forecast period.
Poultry will fare better. The economic crisis should boost demand for poultry at the expense of red meat. Chicken is cheaper than pork and beef so the industry can expect to benefit from cash-strapped consumers switching to poultry. In 2009, we estimate that Greece consumed 216,000 tonnes of poultry. In 2010, this figure should increase to 221,000 tonnes, up by 2.4% (2,000 tonnes more than forecast in Q1). By 2014, we predict consumption will be 237,000 tonnes, up by 9.8% over the forecast period.
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