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Morocco Agribusiness Report Q2 2010
Market |
Agriculture, Farming & Raw Materials |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Morocco |
Published |
3 March 2010 |
Number of Pages |
46 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Morocco looks set to post near-record harvests of its major grain crops in the 2009/10 crop year. We forecast wheat production to rise 69.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 6.31mn tonnes, back around the same level as the largest crop on record recorded in 2006/07 at 6.33mn tonnes. Production could well surpass this mark if the excellent weather in the first seven months of the crop year from June to December 2009 continues through the first half of 2010. Barley production is also set to approach record levels. We now forecast production to climb 178.8% y-o-y to 3.55mn tonnes. This would be the largest crop since 1996/97 when production hit 3.83mn tonnes. Again, if the good weather continues into the second quarter of 2010, production could surpass that level.
The bumper harvests of 2009/10 are a far cry from the disastrous turnouts in 2005/06 and 2007/08 when production of wheat and barley plummeted owing to drought. The good harvest in 2008/09 and anticipated excellent harvest this current year have helped to support GDP growth. In 2009, while much of the world struggled with recession, Morocco's economy expanded at a healthy 4.6% y-o-y. In 2010, we forecast another strong expansion of 3.6%. Though the large harvests are obviously to be welcomed, the large variations in annual grain production highlight the volatility of agriculture in Morocco where large swings in output from year to year are the norm. Much of this is due to climate. Infrastructural weaknesses, however, also play a part. Increasing investment in water storage and irrigation infrastructure would help protect the country's farmers from some of the worst effects of the periodic droughts with which the country is afflicted.
Not so directly reliant on the weather, poultry production has seen a much steadier growth trend over the past few decades. Starting from a fairly low base, production roughly doubled every decade from 1968 to 2008. In the decade from 1998 to 2008, production grew by 98.4% to 490,000 tonnes. Over the past two decades there has been considerable investment in modern equipment, particularly climate control, which has allowed production to become more efficient and stocking density to increase sharply. Over the coming years, we expect to see more investment in fully integrating production with companies combining feed mills, broiler housing and slaughtering and processing plants all on one site.
Expected strong GDP growth and a rising population will see demand for poultry continue to rise over our forecast period. Growth in volume consumption will come alongside a change in consumption patterns as access to modern retail sees consumption of processed poultry products rise. The spread of fast food outlets will also contribute to a rise in demand for non-traditional poultry products.
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