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Market |
Agriculture, Farming & Raw Materials |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
New Zealand |
Published |
3 March 2010 |
Number of Pages |
53 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
At the start of 2010, New Zealand, or at least half of it, was struggling with unusually dry weather conditions. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon brought months of below average rainfall to the North Island in late 2009 and early 2010. In the first quarter of 2010, the government declared Northland a medium level drought zone. This is the first time the area has been struck by an official drought in almost 30 years. We expect the dry weather to see milk production in the North Island fall as pasture conditions deteriorate. The poor pasture has also seen a spike in cattle slaughter in the area as farmers have liquidated animals owing to a shortage of grazing land. New Zealand's corn crop, centred in the North Island, will also suffer from the drought.
While rainfall should improve in the second quarter of the year as ENSO conditions subside, the drought has highlighted problems in New Zealand's water management. New Zealand's agricultural sector is blessed with plentiful supplies of water compared to its Australasian and Asian neighbours to the north. However, the country's underdeveloped water storage infrastructure means that this fact is not exploited to full advantage. Increasing investment in water storage and irrigation infrastructure would help prevent damage from spells of below average rainfall and would also help improve productivity in normal climatic conditions.
Apart from the dry weather, farmers are also struggling with the continued strength of the New Zealand dollar. Though the value of the Kiwi dollar against its US counterpart has fallen slightly since a peak in early Q409, at around US$0.70/NZD in later February, it was still high by historical standards. This has suppressed the domestic price of beef and dairy products. Beef prices have barely risen following the rapid slump in early Q409 when prices plummeted by more than 15% in little over a month. Growth in dairy prices has also stalled as world prices softened in the first month of 2010.
The poor financial state of many of New Zealand's dairy farmers was shown by the lacklustre uptake of a stock offering by dairy cooperative Fonterra. Following a restructuring of the cooperative approved by members in November last year, farmers are now able to buy extra shares up to 20% more than is required by their milk production. In January 2010, Bloomberg reported that the first stock offer under the new structure raised NZD271mn. This was a fairly poor showing considering that up to NZD1.1bn worth of shares were on offer. Many farmers are already saddled with high levels of debt following the crash in dairy prices in 2008. We expect interest among farmers in increasing their holdings in the cooperative will improve as the world economy continues to pick up in the coming year. Despite the poor showing in the stock release, Fonterra is pushing ahead with expansion plans in emerging markets abroad with new investments recenetly announced in Malaysia, China and Saudi Arabia.
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