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Market |
Agriculture, Farming & Raw Materials |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Turkey |
Published |
19 June 2009 |
Number of Pages |
48 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
As 2009 progresses, there is little to suggest an uptick in global economic health. Turkey is expected to experience a full and deep recession, weighed down by a sizeable current account deficit, while its highly productive agricultural sector is foreseen to stumble through the year, to the detriment of the one-third of the population employed in rural husbandry. The latest Turkey Agribusiness Report looks at how, with EU accession looming, the Turkish government seeks to incorporate higher levels of productive efficiency, through private investment and bilateral development partnerships.
The prospect of joining the EU has forced the state to look at ways in which it can increase productivity in domestic farming without aggravating a precarious macroeconomic position. Subsequently, foreign direct investment (FDI) has been targeted as being able to help consolidate the productive capacity of Turkish agriculture, which at present is largely fragmented and family-run. In addition to improving the local supply outlook, stimulating household demand is a pertinent aim to helping the economy restrengthen.
Since late 2008, some success has been achieved on the FDI front. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has agreed to provide finance to the tune of US$193mn for agribusiness and small business development. The figure is reported to rise to US$300mn in 2010 and could be used to marked effect in developing infrastructure. More recently, a group consisting of various Arab investment houses signalled its intention to facilitate substantial capital flows into Turkey; a development which the government has used as a PR tool to highlight investor optimism in local farming.
A range of agricultural sub-sectors are still supported through government subsidies, which must surely weigh heavily on an already tight fiscal burden; this dynamic must surely be eradicated if real efficiency gains are ever to be realised. This will most likely mean that a number of small-scale producers may struggle to stay afloat, thus the face of Turkish farming is set to change irrevocably, with a smaller number of producers becoming increasingly influential.
The potential for social unrest and economic instability associated with the disappearance of small owned family enterprises, is notable. While productivity may improve, unemployment and unrest could provide a more pertinent threat in future. However, with supply and demand fundamentals expected to perform well through to 2013, despite a rocky 2009, it is believed that a more economically-minded approach will translate into a brighter outlook for both aggregate production and consumption, boosting the entire domestic outlook, while the value added sub-sectors stand to gain considerably.
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