Zimbabwe Mining Report Q1 2010

The geology of Zimbabwe is very richly endowed. Of the 40 known metals and minerals that it is home to: gold, platinum and chrome form the principal endowments. The country’s gold reserves are among the largest in Africa, while it hosts the second largest platinum reserves in the world. Another segment that has caught the attention of miners in Zimbabwe, is diamonds after the discovery of a number of significant kimberlites.

Latest News
In September 2009, there was a renewed focus on mining on the part of the government. President Robert Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai both made speeches stating that the country would be looking to review its Mines and Minerals Act by year-end 2009. At the same time, it is likely that the country will implement ‘rational’ mining royalties and taxes and take moves to deregulate the sector, according to Tsvangirai. Bloomberg has quoted Tsvangirai as saying the nation currently has a ‘window of opportunity’ to prepare a conducive policy environment by mid-2010. Present royalty levels stand at 10% for diamonds, 3% for gold and 1% for coal. There is also an expectation that the country will now speed up the approval of mine licences, as it looks to restart activity within this key economic sector. However, there were no new announcements on this subject by mid-December, when this report went to press.

It remains to be seen how any amendments to national mining policy will deal with the issue of black empowerment. The previous policy of the Zanu-PF government was that local investors should hold a 51% stake in all Zimbabwean mining activity. However, this has been rejected by mining companies, which say they should be allowed to set lower empowerment stakes, with a maximum ceiling of 40%, according to reports in the local media. Tsvangirai has said that any new programme of black empowerment should be implemented in line with international norms and should not discriminate against non-black Zimbabweans. In our view, there is a pressing need to negotiate with mining companies and thereby resolve the issue of mining ownership, so foreign investors can work within a clear legal framework.

New Data For 2010, we have made significant changes to the way in which we forecast mining data. As well as using local statistics agencies and associations, we now also draw on the expertise of the UN’s Industrial Commodity Statistics Database, the US Geological Survey and the World Bureau of Metal Statistics for our historical export and production data. We then forecast this data using our own proprietary econometric model. Human intervention also plays a necessary and desirable role in our mining forecasting; experience, expertise and knowledge of industry trends and developments ensuring that we can spot likely future changes and anomalous data that a purely mechanical model would not.

Industry Forecast
Zimbabwe’s mining sector has experienced a traumatic series of years over the past decade. However, there are reasons for guarded optimism as we enter 2010. Investment is returning to the sector, following the establishment of a national unity government. The 2009 liberalisation of the gold sector was a further positive.

Consequently, we believe the scene is set for a period of strong growth for the Zimbabwean mining sector, although we would stress that this remains dependent on a continuation of the relative political stability that has endured in recent months.