BMI Risk Ratings
BMI Risk Ratings – Central America... 6-11
BMI Risk Ratings – Latin America Tables.. 12
Latin America – Ratings League Tables.... 13
Executive Summary.. 15C
Core Views.....15
Major Forecast Changes...15
Key Risks To Outlook...15
Regional Outlook..... 17
Political Outlook – Regional... 17
SWOT Analysis..... 17
Domestic Politics..... 18
Central America And The Caribbean: The Violence Spreads...18
Long-Term Political Outlook... 20
Central America: Many Challenges, Limited Means..20
Economic Outlook – Regional... 23
SWOT Analysis..... 23
Regional: Sovereign Risk Ratings.. 24
Risks Rising, Expect More Downgrades.....24
Economic Activity.... 25
Strong Investment Despite Global Slowdown....25
Chapter 1.1: Political Outlook – Costa Rica . 29
Domestic Politics..... 29
Fiscal Reforms Represent Hollow Victory..29
Chapter 1.2: Economic Outlook – Costa Rica . 31
Economic Activity.... 31
Strong Return For Growth ...31
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.. 31
Chapter 2.1: Political Outlook – El Salvador ... 33
Domestic Politics..... 33
Election Getting Too Close To Call.....33
Chapter 2.2: Economic Outlook – El Salvador .... 27
Economic Activity.... 35
External Accounts To Remain Precarious..35
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT ... 35
Chapter 3.1: Political Outlook – Guatemala . 37
Domestic Politics..... 37
Pérez Molina Election To Increase Risks....37
Chapter 3.2: Economic Outlook – Guatemala . 39
Economic Activity.... 39
Growth to Slow in Guatemala..39
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.. 39
Chapter 4.1: Political Outlook – Honduras... 41
Domestic Politics..... 41
Police Corruption Prompts Further Downgrade....41
Chapter 4.2: Economic Outlook – Honduras.... 43
Economic Activity.... 43
Policy Rate To Stay Put In 2012...43
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY.... 43
Chapter 5.1: Political Outlook – Nicaragua... 45
Domestic Politics..... 45
Another Ortega Victory, But Little Positive Change To Come..45
Chapter 5.2: Economic Outlook – Nicaragua... 47
Economic Activity.... 47
Edging Away From The Brink, For Now..47
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT ... 47
Chapter 6.1: Political Outlook – Panama.. 49
Domestic Politics..... 49
Protests Weigh On Ratings..49
Chapter 6.2: Economic Outlook – Panama... 51
Economic Activity.... 51
Growth Optimism, With Risks To Future Gains.51
Chapter 7: BMI Global Assumptions.... 53
Global Outlook.. 53
Eurozone Break-Up Risks Rising ...53
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS ..... 53
TABLE: DEVELOPE D STATES REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST .... 54
TABLE: REAL GDP GROWTH CONSENSUS FORECASTS .... 54
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST ... 55