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We believe that Colombia's economy will expand at robust growth rates in the coming years, characterised by improved macroeconomic conditions and an increasingly friendly business environment.
Stronger private consumption will drive the majority of growth, although gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) will play an increasingly important role over the coming quarters.
The infrastructure, mining and hydrocarbons sectors are particularly well positioned for growth.
Major Forecast Changes
No Major Forecast Changes Since Last Update.
Upside Risks: Elevated foreign investment inflows into the country following Colombia's upgrade to 'investment grade' by all three major ratings agencies could drive growth even faster than expected. In addition, a successful agreement during the ongoing peace negotiations between the government and the country's main left-wing insurgent group, the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc), would likely result in even greater foreign investment as risk perception improves.
Downside Risks: Another wave of labour strikes would pose significant downside risks to our export and real GDP growth outlook. Indeed, workers demanding higher wages and greater government support disrupted key exports such as coal throughout 2013, and another episode of industrial activity cannot be ruled out at this moment.
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