Executive Summary.. 5
Core Views...5
Key Risks To Outlook.....5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook. 7
SWOT Analysis... 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings..... 7
Domestic Politics... 8
Flawed Elections Undermine Stability..8
On-the-ground observations point to the distinct possibility that the Democratic Republic of Congos deeply flawed national elections
may lead to a significant escalation of violence, with Kinshasa and the mineral-rich provinces of Katanga, Kasais, North Kivu and South
Kivu particularly vulnerable.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook.... 11
SWOT Analysis..... 11
BMI Economic Risk Ratings.... 11
Economic Activity ... 12
Mining Bonanza To Drive Growth....12
We are forecasting real GDP growth of 6.2% and 6.4% for the DRC in 2012 and 2013 respectively, following the 6.5% growth we expect
for 2011. Economic activity should be driven by an expanding mining sector.
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.. 12
TABLE: MINING INDUSTRY... 13
Investment Climate.. 14
Some Positives Among Massive Governance Challenges...14
DRC has one of the worst business environments in the world. Despite slipping on several governance indicators in 2011, we identify
some positives.
Chapter 3: BMI Global Assumptions. 17
Global Outlook.. 17
Eurozone Break-Up Risks Rising ...17
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS ..... 17
TABLE: DEVELOPE D STATES REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST .... 18
TABLE: REAL GDP GROWTH CONSENSUS FORECASTS .... 18
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST ... 19