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Hong Kong Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

744.42

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Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£744.42

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Market

All Sectors

Report Type

Country Guide

Country

Hong Kong

Published

24 October 2012

Number of Pages

43

Report Delivery

Download

Delivery Lead Time

Immediate

Publisher

Business Monitor International

File Format

PDF

We have revised our 2012 growth forecast downwards and expect real GDP growth to slow from 5.0% to 2.2%, compared with our previous estimate of 3.0%. This falls between the governments growth projection of 1-3% and against consensus expectations of 3.0%. Hong Kongs property market is undergoing a necessary correction. The government is likely to ramp up the supply of land, while an expected economic downturn will impinge on demand.

We believe the effects of a corrective real estate market will duly place considerable stress on the economy, with private consumption likely to be the hardest hit. With money supply growth rolling over, loan growth expected to slow down markedly and economic growth prospects remaining downbeat, we expect the broader disinflation trend to maintain course. We expect the service economy to witness a marked slowdown. Key merchanting and transportation services will be hurt by the slowdown in trade volumes while financial services exports will be adversely affected as the IPO market remains subdued.

Key Risks To Outlook

Downside Risk To 2012 Growth Forecast: Should the mainland economy experience a sharper-than-expected slowdown, or the sovereign crisis in Europe take a turn for the worse, the ripple effect on Hong Kong means the economy would be disproportionately affected.

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+44 (0) 203 086 8600

Select License Type

Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£744.42

Change Currency

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USD

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