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Ireland Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

767.27

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Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£767.27

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Market

All Sectors

Report Type

Country Guide

Country

Ireland

Published

24 October 2012

Number of Pages

23

Report Delivery

Download

Delivery Lead Time

Immediate

Publisher

Business Monitor International

File Format

PDF

Irelands economy will post negative growth in 2012 as fiscal austerity, household deleveraging and a recession in Europe weigh on activity. We forecast real GDP to contract by 0.5% in 2012, following a 0.7% real terms expansion in 2011. The outlook for the Irish economy remains extremely depressed, with a swift recovery from its post-2007 woes an unlikely outcome. Instead, the pace of Irelands recovery will be tied to the fortunes of its exports sectors, and thereby global economic conditions.

The recessionary conditions that prevail in Europe and the low growth being observed in the US suggest the Irish economy will remain anaemic through the coming quarters. Irelands affirmation of the eurozone fiscal pact provides the Irish government with some leverage for negotiation with its eurozone creditors over Irelands more-than-likely second bailout. Although the government remains committed to its fiscal austerity programme we believe that Ireland will miss its current fiscal deficit and debt targets on account of the less favourable external environment that now prevails.

Key Risks To Outlook

Ireland is very much dependent on exports for economic growth. Therefore, any continued deterioration in the external demand climate would almost certainly derail Irelands incipient recovery. In particular, the potential for excessive US fiscal tightening, a policy misstep in the eurozone debt crisis, or a very hard landing in China cast doubt over the sustainability of Irelands recovery.

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Select License Type

Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£767.27

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