Ireland Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks To Outlook

Chapter 1: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Domestic Political Analysis
Kenny Pushes Bank Deal
Ireland's affirmation of the eurozone fiscal pact provides the Irish government with some leverage for negotiation with its eurozone
creditors over Ireland's more-than-likely second bailout Although the government remains committed to its fiscal austerity programme
we believe that Ireland will miss its current fiscal deficit and debt targets on account of the less favourable external environment that now
prevails
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
Economic Activity
Depression Rumbles On
The outlook for the Irish economy remains extremely depressed, with a swift recovery from its post-2007 woes an unlikely outcome
Instead, the pace of Ireland's recovery will be tied to the fortunes of its exports sectors, and thereby global economic conditions The
recessionary conditions that prevail in Europe and the low growth being observed in the US suggest that the Irish economy will remain
anaemic through the coming quarters
IRELAND – GDP BY EXPENDITURE, REAL GROWTH %

Chapter 3: Key Sectors
Telecommunications
TABLE: TELECOMS SECTOR – FIXED LINE – HISTORICAL DATA & FORECASTS, 2009-2016F
TABLE: TELECOMS SECTOR – INTERNET – HISTORICAL DATA & FORECASTS, 2009-2016F
TABLE: TELECOMS SECTOR – MOBILE – HISTORICAL DATA & FORECASTS, 2009-2016F
TABLE: TELECOMS SECTOR – MONTHLY BLENDED MOBILE ARPU (EUR) – HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS, 2009-2016F
Other Key Sectors
TABLE: FOOD AND DRINK SECTOR KEY INDICATORS

Chapter 4: BMI Global Assumptions
Global Outlook
The Cycle Has Turned
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST
TABLE: REAL GDP GROWTH CONSENSUS FORECASTS
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST 23