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Jordan and the West Bank and Gaza Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

742.76

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Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£742.76

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Market

All Sectors

Report Type

Country Guide

Country

Middle East

Published

24 October 2012

Number of Pages

49

Report Delivery

Download

Delivery Lead Time

Immediate

Publisher

Business Monitor International

File Format

PDF

We maintain the view that Jordans long-term political outlook is among the most stable in the region, with the monarchy having implemented a series of political and economic reforms in recent years. Nonetheless, the social uprisings that emerged in the region since 2011 are indicative of the threat that low living standards and lack of political freedoms pose to long-term stability. Jordans near-term economic outlook is bleak.

We have long been highlighting the detrimental impact that widespread regional unrest was having on the economy, as it hits inflows of foreign direct investment as well as the all-important tourism sector. With government austerity set to bite in the coming months, we do not expect to see an economic recovery any time soon. Given the ongoing deterioration to Jordans balance of payments position, or core view now sees the dinar being devalued at some point in 2013.

Major Forecast Changes

We are forecasting a sharp deterioration to Jordans balance of payments position over the coming quarters, as a sharp slowdown in tourism receipts and a surge in the commodity import bill pushes the current account further into deficit. We are forecasting a current account shortfall of 11.1% of GDP in 2012, narrowing to 9.2% in 2013.

Key Risk To Outlook

The recently approved IMF Stand-By Arrangement has helped alleviate pressure on Jordans fiscal and external accounts for the time being. However, should disbursals under the programme stall – which is an increasing possibility given the kings recent decision to reverse previously announced fuel hikes – such pressures would undoubtedly return. This would once again raise fears over the possibility of an uncontrolled devaluation of the dinar.

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Select License Type

Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£742.76

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