Kazakhstan and Central Asia Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

BMI Ratings
BMI Risk Ratings – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan 6-
Emerging Europe – Ratings League Tables
BMI Risk Ratings – Emerging Europe Tables
Executive Summary – Kazakhstan
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks To Outlook

Chapter 1 1: Political Outlook – Kazakhstan
Domestic Politics
Zhanaozen Trials To Remain A Challenge
TABLE: KAZAKHSTAN POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Chapter 1 2: Economic Outlook – Kazakhstan
Economic Activity
High Oil Prices Continue To Stoke Domestic Demand
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Fiscal Policy
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
Robust Oil Revenues Allow For Expansionary State Budget
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY

Chapter 1 3: 10-Year Forecast – Kazakhstan
The Kazakh Economy To 2021
Developing Non-Oil Sectors Key To Sustaining Growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

Chapter 1 4: Business Environment – Kazakhstan
Business Environment Outlook
Improving Business Environment Ahead
Executive Summary – Kyrgyzstan
Core Views
Key Risks To Outlook

Chapter 2 1: Political Outlook – Kyrgyzstan
Domestic Politics
Ethnic Tensions Still A Key Risk To Stability
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Chapter 2 2: Economic Outlook – Kyrgyzstan
Balance Of Payments
Weaker Remittances To Widen CA Deficit
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT
Executive Summary – Tajikistan
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks To Outlook

Chapter 3 1: Political Outlook – Tajikistan
Foreign Policy
Geopolitical Importance Rising, As Afghan War Winds Down
Domestic Politics
Violence Reaffirms Expectation Of Continued Instability
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Chapter 3 2: Economic Outlook – Tajikistan
Economic Activity
Growth To Slow In 2013
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Executive Summary – Turkmenistan
Core Views
Key Risks To Outlook

Chapter 4 1: Political Outlook – Turkmenistan
Domestic Politics
Relations With Azerbaijan To Remain Tense
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Chapter 4 2: Economic Outlook – Turkmenistan
Continued Strong Growth Based On Hydrocarbons Sector
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Executive Summary – Uzbekistan
Core Views
Key Risks To Outlook
CSTO Suspension Offers Opportunities And Risks

Chapter 5 1: Political Outlook – Uzbekistan
CSTO Suspension Offers Opportunities And Risks
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Chapter 5 2: Economic Outlook – Uzbekistan
Robust Growth To Continue On Elevated Commodity Prices
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions
Global Outlook
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST
TABLE: REAL GDP GROWTH CONSENSUS FORECASTS
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST 59