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Nigeria Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

733.02

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Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£733.02

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Market

All Sectors

Report Type

Country Guide

Country

Nigeria

Published

24 October 2012

Number of Pages

47

Report Delivery

Download

Delivery Lead Time

Immediate

Publisher

Business Monitor International

File Format

PDF

Despite the headwinds in the global macroeconomic outlook, we expect growth in Nigeria to remain around 7.0% over the coming years, bolstered by high government spending and improving productivity in the non-oil sectors. Security risks, which we have long highlighted, have risen, with militants increasing their activity in the northern parts of the country. The situation is beginning to have an adverse economic impact in terms of agricultural production.

Major Forecast Changes

We have again upgraded our current account forecasts, due to both a rise in non-oil exports (which have helped to offset declines in oil productivity) and a decline in imports. We estimate that the current account will equal 19.3% of GDP in 2012, before easing to 15.3% in 2013. Based on a sharp decline in oil prices which threatens government revenues as well as rising demands for expenditures we have downgraded our fiscal account balance projections. We now believe the budget deficit will equal 3.6% of GDP in 2012, compared with a previous estimate of 3.3%.

Key Risks To Outlook

The volatility in the price of oil poses a significant risk to export revenues and government receipts, a fact starkly illustrated with the sharp downturn seen in Q212. A significant deterioration in the economies of Europe, the US, or other major markets could see the price again head lower, with negative implications for Nigerias economy. While we believe that security risks will eventually be contained, if the situation significantly deteriorates, this would potentially adversely affect investment, exports and growth.

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+44 (0) 203 086 8600

Select License Type

Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£733.02

Change Currency

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USD

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