Norway Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

Executive Summary
Core Views

Chapter 1: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Domestic Politics
Labour Disputes Add Turbulence To Political Scene
Norway's political outlook remains extremely robust, with parliamentary democracy and peaceful external relations well entrenched In
fact Norway achieves one of the strongest political profiles in our political ratings in both the short and long term Nevertheless, recent
labour disputes could see Norway's short-term political profile deteriorate if the government is unable to reconcile the demands of labour
with the interest of the country's oil and gas industry
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
Economic Activity
Housing Bubble Continues To Swell
We reiterate our concern about the sustainability of Norway's property market, which we believe can be characterised as a debt-fuelled
bubble We see substantial risks to medium-term economic growth for Norway's domestic economy Although we forecast real GDP to
rise 1 4% over the course of 2012, largely in line with 2011's 1 6% growth outturn,
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Monetary Policy
Rates On Hold Through To 2015
With global growth stumbling and the rate of increase in Norway's consumer price index modest, we expect Norwegian monetary policy
to remain accommodative well into the medium term In fact, we suspect that global headwinds will combine with moderate Norwegian
domestic demand to see the Norges Bank policy rate remain on hold at 1 50% until 2015
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

Chapter 3: Business Environment
SWOT Analysis
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
Telecommunications

Chapter 4: Key Sectors
TABLE: TELECOMS SECTOR – FIXED LINE – HISTORICAL DATA & FORECASTS
TELECOMS SECTOR – INTERNET – HISTORICAL DATA & FORECASTS
TELECOMS SECTOR – MOBILE – HISTORICAL DATA & FORECASTS
Other Key Sectors
TABLE: AUTOS SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: FOOD AND DRINK SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: OIL AND GAS SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: PHARMA SECTOR KEY INDICATORS

Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
Global Outlook
Q412 Update
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST
TABLE: REAL GDP GROWTH CONSENSUS FORECASTS
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST 27