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Oman and Yemen Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

786.86

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Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£786.86

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Market

All Sectors

Report Type

Country Guide

Country

Middle East

Published

24 October 2012

Number of Pages

57

Report Delivery

Download

Delivery Lead Time

Immediate

Publisher

Business Monitor International

File Format

PDF

Government spending will be the primary driver of Omans growth momentum over the medium term. With oil prices set to remain high throughout the year, and room in the governments budget for a further ramping up of social spending, we expect the economy to continue growing robustly in the near term. With popular discontent appearing to be on the rise, the possibility of Muscat announcing a new fiscal stimulus package over the coming quarters is high. We would expect any additional expenditure to take the form of current spending (i.e. higher wages or increased subsidies).

Major Forecast Changes

On the back of higher global oil prices, we have revised up our forecasts for Omans budget surplus in 2012. We now expect the budget to come in surplus to the tune of 9.5% of GDP, before falling to 5.2% in 2013.

Key Risks To Outlook

We stress that, for the foreseeable future, Omans economy will remain highly reliant on oil revenue. Should prices record a more pronounced drop before the economy has been sufficiently diversified away from the energy sector, our positive outlook might prove overly optimistic. The autocratic nature of the political regime in Oman (and elsewhere in the Gulf) will ensure that risks of an uptick in protest activity by pro-democracy demonstrators remain elevated; such activity would generate uncertainty and deter investors from the market.

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Select License Type

Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£786.86

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