Companies and Markets
Call us on +44 (0) 203 086 8600
Market Research A to Z | Company Profiles A to Z | RegisterRegister | Contact UsContact Us | Shopping Basket Shopping Basket
+44 (0) 203 086 8600 Call us on

Peru Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

763.57

Select License Type

Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£763.57

Change Currency

GBP EURO USD
GBP EURO USD

Market

All Sectors

Report Type

Country Guide

Country

Peru

Published

24 October 2012

Number of Pages

49

Report Delivery

Download

Delivery Lead Time

Immediate

Publisher

Business Monitor International

File Format

PDF

A growing consumer base and robust mining and infrastructure project pipelines inform our view that Peruvian growth will be among the strongest in Latin America over the medium term. Domestic demand will become an increasingly important driver of growth in the coming years. As such, we believe the telecoms, utilities and financials sectors have significant long-term growth potential. We expect President Ollanta Humalas administration to increase social spending over the coming years, leading to moderate nominal fiscal deficits. That said, our medium-term revenue outlook remains relatively bright on the back of rising exports and a growing consumer base.

Major Forecast Changes

Following strong economic data in the year to date, as well as indications that private consumption and fixed investment will bolster economic activity more than we had previously expected in the next few years, we have revised up our 2012 and 2013 growth forecasts for Peru. We now forecast real GDP growth of 5.6% (from 4.8%) in 2012 and 5.2% (from 4.8%) in 2013.

Given a sharp deterioration in trade data in recent months, due in part to slowing economic growth in China, we have substantially revised our current account forecasts for Peru to reflect wider deficits in 2012 and 2013. We forecast Perus current account deficit to come in at 2.8% of GDP in 2012 (from 1.7% previously) and 3.2% in 2013 (1.5%). Although we expect the countrys financial account surplus to remain off its recent highs for the foreseeable future, we believe it will comfortably offset the current account shortfall.

While we maintain our view for Perus central bank to hold the policy rate at 4.25% for the remainder of 2012, we are now calling for 25 basis points of cuts in 2013. This is underpinned by our view for slower economic growth in Peru next year, due in part to the continued deceleration of Chinas economy, as well as more moderate inflation. As such, we believe Perus central bank will be encouraged to step in to provide stimulus to the domestic economy next year.

Speak to an Advisor

Call us on
+44 (0) 203 086 8600

Select License Type

Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£763.57

Change Currency

GBP EURO USD

Change Currency

GBP
USD

Visitor Comments

All posts are pre-moderated and must obey the house rules.

Change Currency

GBP
USD

Use our research skills: Get free support

Free Research Support: Let us do the work for you and find information from public and private sources of information. Contact us now and we can save you time and money.......Free Research Support

December Discounted Prices: Contact us to ask about our special discounts available in December

For the last month in 2014 we are offering discounted prices on a selection of new reports. Please contact us on 00 44 (0) 203 0868600 or via email (click here to email) to ask about prices and special discounts.

Available during December and the run-up to Christmas; Discounted prices on a selection of our reports.

Find all the research at the best prices. Great promotions being offered during December!

We are offering our clients substantial savings on the best research available during December. Please contact us either via emailor by calling our team to discuss your specific research needs on Tel: 00 44 (0) 203 0868600. We look forward to being able to find you the research you require at good prices.

Accessibility
Close

Contrast settings

Text size settings