Companies and Markets
Call us on +44 (0) 203 086 8600
Market Research A to Z | Company Profiles A to Z | RegisterRegister | Contact UsContact Us | Shopping Basket Shopping Basket
+44 (0) 203 086 8600 Call us on

Poland Business Forecast Report Q3 2012

721.4

Select License Type

Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£721.40

Change Currency

GBP EURO USD
GBP EURO USD

Market

All Sectors

Report Type

Country Guide

Country

Poland

Published

1 July 2012

Number of Pages

45

Report Delivery

Download

Delivery Lead Time

Immediate

Publisher

Business Monitor International

File Format

PDF

We forecast real GDP growth of 2.5% and 3.9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively as robust domestic demand provides a measure of protection against a slowdown in the eurozone. However, we remain below consensus, which is for 3.0% growth in 2012, because we do not think that investment and government spending will be as supportive of growth as they were in 2011. We expect Poland to narrow its budget deficit from 5.1% of GDP in 2011 to 3.4% of GDP in 2012, missing its target of 2.9% of GDP.

However, we do not expect public debt to breach the 55% of GDP debt ceiling, with it on course to fall gradually from 2013 onwards. Tension between Poland and Russia is likely to persist in 2012 as the acceleration in Irans nuclear programme has renewed discussion over the USs plans for a ballistic missile defence system in the region. Several of the interceptors are to be located in Poland, and while the Russian government opposes the programme, Poland has pushed for it.

Major Forecast Changes

We now forecast that the National Bank of Poland will hold rates at 4.75% in 2012, having surprised the market with 25 basis point hike on May 9. We believe further hikes are unlikely to occur given our below consensus outlook for GDP growth, and the banks hawkish rhetoric will prevent it from cutting rates as inflation drifts back into the target band. As the macroeconomic headwinds originating from the eurozone have started affecting non-euro countries, we have amended our 2012 current account forecast for Poland. We now expect the deficit to narrow to 4.0% of GDP in 2012, from an estimated 4.3% of GDP in 2011. Underlying this latest revision is our view that goods and services import growth will be contained as Poland enters a period of deep fiscal tightening.

Risks To Outlook

Although not our core scenario, we highlight the risk of Greece leaving the eurozone, potentially leading to a disorderly breakup of the whole common currency bloc. This would likely push Poland into recession. A zloty sell-off in response to a downturn in risk appetite could prompt the central bank to hike rates in order to contain imported inflation. This risk would be heightened if domestic demand holds up better than we currently expect.

Speak to an Advisor

Call us on
+44 (0) 203 086 8600

Select License Type

Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£721.40

Change Currency

GBP EURO USD

Change Currency

GBP
USD

Visitor Comments

All posts are pre-moderated and must obey the house rules.

Change Currency

GBP
USD

Use our research skills: Get free support

Free Research Support: Let us do the work for you and find information from public and private sources of information. Contact us now and we can save you time and money.......Free Research Support

eBrandPromote: Get your brands ranked highly online

eBrandPromote: Let us promote your brand online through article writing, press release distribution, social media and search engine marketing services. Click here to download our eBrandPromote brochure.

Accessibility
Close

Contrast settings

Text size settings