Qatar Business Forecast Report Q3 2012

Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks To Outlook
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Foreign Policy
Increasing Regional Clout Raises Risks
Qatar's assertive foreign policy risks damaging the country's relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran The Saudi government is growing
increasingly suspicious of Qatar's rising political influence and its accommodative relations with Iran, while the Iranian government is
angered over Qatar's support for the Syrian rebel movement
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Limited Challenges For The Coming Decade
We find it hard to argue that political instability could become a core scenario in Qatar Nevertheless, with the government playing
the role of conflict mediator in one of the hottest international conflict flashpoints in the world, in addition to having a growing young
population and increasing number of expatriates, Qatar will not be immune to external and internal shocks in the long run
TABLE: QATARI LEADERS
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
Economic Activity
Still The Gulf's Economic Outperformer
We forecast Qatar's economy to grow 7 8% and 7 3% in real terms in 2012 and 2013 respectively, down from our estimate of 14 7%
growth in 2011
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Monetary Policy
Inflation To Slowly Tick Higher
Inflationary pressure is set to increase in Qatar in 2012, as government spending filters through the economy and oversupply in the
housing market decreases As the current deflationary trend in rent prices is moderating slower than we previously expected, we have
revised down our forecast for inflation
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY
Fiscal Policy
Capital Expenditure Growing Steadily
Qatar's government will very likely keep fiscal policy strongly expansionary in 2012, although we believe both revenues and expenditure
will grow less than under the budget's core assumptions
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
Balance Of Payments
Strengthening Investment Overseas
We project Qatar's current account surplus to come in at 34 4% and 30 6% of GDP in 2012 and 2013 respectively Owing to this robust
external position, the country will continue enhancing its international investment position, and we believe Qatar will increasingly focus
its overseas investments on commodities and emerging markets
Banking Sector
Asset Growth To Moderate
We expect both credit and total asset growth in the Qatari banking sector to slow in 2012, as base effects and a relatively high loans-todeposits
ratio weigh on banks' sources of financing
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT
TABLE: BANKING SECTOR ASSETS, LOCAL CURRENCY TERMS
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
The Qatari Economy To 2021
Solid Long-Term Growth Prospects
The outlook for the Qatari economy over the next 10 years is positive, with good performance of the crucial energy sector and
substantial current account surpluses expected Political risk is likely to remain low, as we do not see the al-Thani family losing its grip
on power
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 4: Business Environment
SWOT Analysis
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
Business Environment Outlook
Institutions
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING
Infrastructure
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY
Market Orientation
TABLE: MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA – ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS
Operational Risk
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
Freight Transport
TABLE: MARITIME FREIGHT – THROUGHPUT, 2007-2016 ('000 TONNES)
TABLE: AIR FREIGHT, 2007-2016
Food & Drink
TABLE: FOOD CONSUMPTION – HISTORICAL DATA & FORECASTS
TABLE: SOFT DRINKS VALUE SALES – HISTORICAL DATA & FORECASTS
TABLE: MASS GROCERY RETAIL SALES – HISTORICAL DATA & FORECASTS
Other Key Sectors
TABLE: INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: OIL & GAS SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: PHARMA SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: AUTOS SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: TELECOMS SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions
Global Outlook
World Slows As Euro Crisis Simmers
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST
TABLE: REAL GDP GROWTH CONSENSUS FORECASTS
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST 45