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Qatar Business Forecast Report Q3 2012

714.72

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Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£714.72

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Market

All Sectors

Report Type

Country Guide

Country

Qatar

Published

1 July 2012

Number of Pages

43

Report Delivery

Download

Delivery Lead Time

Immediate

Publisher

Business Monitor International

File Format

PDF

Qatars short-term political risk profile remains among the most stable in the region. Despite enjoying little in the way of democratic freedom, Qataris benefit from massive hydrocarbon wealth that is spread generously across the countrys native population and enjoy the highest per capita GDP in the world.

A small population – and one without much inclination to protest against the government – will keep the country insulated from large-scale public unrest in the immediate term. Qatar is likely to continue its efforts at enhancing its international investment position over the coming years. We are forecasting a current account surplus of 34.4% of GDP in 2012 and, in spite of our expectation of moderating global energy prices, forecast an average of 26.9% of GDP over the 2012-2016 period, facilitating further outflows of capital from the small Gulf state.

Major Forecast Changes

We forecast real GDP growth to come in at 7.8% in 2012 and 7.3% in 2013, compared with our previous forecasts of 7.9% and 6.9% for 2012 and 2013 respectively. As a result of larger-than-expected wage increases and given our view that deflation in the housing market will ease, we forecast average inflation of 2.9% and 4.1% in 2012 and 2013 respectively, compared with an estimated 1.9% in 2011. That said, as oversupply in the housing market is set to moderate more slowly than we previously expected, we have lowered our forecasts for consumer price inflation, from 3.8% in 2012 and 4.3% in 2013 previously.

Risks To Outlook

Given the economys heavy reliance on the hydrocarbon sector, a pronounced global economic downturn – if it were to translate into a sustained drop-off in demand for oil and gas – could impact negatively on our forecasts for Qatars external account position, budget and growth outlook. That said, we highlight that the countrys US$100bn sovereign wealth fund – as well as its continuing ability to tap international debt markets – provides the economy with significant bulwarks against these risks. The Qatari governments increasingly assertive foreign policy raises some risks in relation to the outlook for regional political stability. In particular, we highlight the potential for the countrys foreign policy to provoke a backlash in the region and the danger that the government could become bogged down in a drawn-out conflict in the Middle East.

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Select License Type

Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£714.72

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USD

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