Qatar Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks To Outlook

Chapter 1: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Domestic Politics
Taking Its Place On The World Stage
Qatar is taking an increasingly assertive course within the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, rapidly expanding its political
and economic links with countries newly reshaped by the Arab Spring
TABLE: QATAR POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Growing International Presence Here To Stay
The Qatari government is likely to maintain its high-profile, interventionist role in the Middle East and North Africa region over the
coming years The Arab Spring has given Doha an opportunity to build up its prestige both at home and abroad, and develop its
relationship with other governments in the region
Long-Term Political Outlook
Limited Challenges For The Coming Decade
We find it hard to argue that political instability could become a core scenario in Qatar Nevertheless, with the government playing
the role of conflict mediator in one of the hottest international conflict flashpoints in the world, in addition to having a growing young
population and increasing number of expatriates, Qatar will not be immune to external and internal shocks in the long run

Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
Economic Activity
Economic Boom Set To End?
Although we expect headline real GDP growth in Qatar to slow to 7 8% and 6 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively (from 14 7% in 2011)
as oil and gas production reach capacity, the outlook for the real economy remains as robust as ever
TABLE: GDP BY EXPENDITURE, US$ TERMS BREAKDOWN
Balance Of Payments
Current Account Surplus Has Peaked
Although Qatar's huge reserves of hydrocarbons wealth will leave its external accounts in comfortable shape for the foreseeable future,
the current account surplus is nevertheless set to narrow gradually in the medium term
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT
Fiscal Policy
Long-Term Budget Plans Are Unrealistic
Qatar faces few significant fiscal risks in the near term, with income from oil and gas exports likely to be more than capable of financing
Doha's spending plans over the coming years
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
Monetary Policy
Subsidies Keeping Inflation In Check
Inflation in Qatar is set to remain broadly under control in the near term Despite heavy government spending and sharply accelerating
credit growth, the government has demonstrated that it has the ability to restrain upside pressure on prices through the use of subsidies
Although the longer-term inflation picture is less clear, we do not expect the Qatar Central Bank to implement an interest rate hike any
time soon
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY
Regional Outlook
Macro Backdrop Remains Robust
Despite heightened concerns surrounding the strength of the global economy, the outlook for the six markets of the Gulf Cooperation
Council (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman) remains robust heading into 2013 Elevated government spending
continues to support activity in the region's non-hydrocarbons sectors, with record high oil prices and production likely to ensure that
fiscal policy remains loose in the near term

Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
The Qatari Economy To 2021
Solid Long-Term Growth Prospects
The outlook for the Qatari economy over the next 10 years is positive, particularly given the positive outlook on the hydrocarbons sector
and our view that the country will continue recording substantial current account surpluses Political risk is likely to remain low, as we do
not see the al-Thani family losing its grip on power
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

Chapter 4: Business Environment
SWOT Analysis
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
Business Environment Outlook
Institutions
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING
Infrastructure
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY
Market Orientation
TABLE: MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA – ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS
Operational Risk
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS (US$MN)

Chapter 5: Key Sectors
Pharmaceuticals
TABLE: PHARMACEUTICAL SALES INDICATORS 2008-2016
TABLE: PRESCRIPTION DRUG SALES INDICATORS 2008-2016
TABLE: PATENTED DRUG MARKET INDICATORS 2008-2016
Telecommunications
TABLE: OTC MEDICINE SALES INDICATORS 2008-2016
TABLE: MEDICAL DEVICES SALES INDICATORS 2008-2016
TABLE: GENERIC DRUG SALES INDICATORS 2008-2016
TABLE: INTERNET – HISTORICAL DATA & FORECAST
TABLE: FIXED-LINE – HISTORICAL DATA & FORECAST
TABLE: MOBILE – HISTORICAL DATA & FORECASTS
TABLE: MOBILE ARPU – HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECAST
Other Key Sectors
TABLE: AUTOS SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: FOOD & DRINK SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: OIL & GAS SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: FREIGHT KEY INDICATORS

Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions
Global Outlook
A Pivotal Autumn Approaches
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST
TABLE: REAL GDP GROWTH CONSENSUS FORECASTS
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST 49