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Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

703.81

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Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£703.81

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Market

All Sectors

Report Type

Country Guide

Country

Eastern Europe

Published

24 October 2012

Number of Pages

85

Report Delivery

Download

Delivery Lead Time

Immediate

Publisher

Business Monitor International

File Format

PDF

With the formation a new government imminent following May elections, the next government will have to contend with a large and widening fiscal deficit. We expect the next administration to tighten the fiscal accounts and return to the IMF programme abandoned in February. Having gained EU candidate status on March 1, Serbia has now embarked on the long process of EU accession. While we expect accession talks to provide an important policy anchor for the country, we do not expect Serbia to join the bloc before 2018.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised our budget deficit forecast for 2012 down from 4.9% of GDP to 5.8% because of delays in forming a new government following the May elections. We expect the National Bank of Serbia to cut rates from 10.00% to 9.25% by the end of 2012 following the banks 50-basis-point rate hike in June.

Key Risks To Outlook

If Serbia does not quickly embark on a more sustainable fiscal trajectory, borrowing costs could spike and the dinar could sell off further, inflating foreign-exchange-denominated public debt. The suspension of Serbias IMF programme has already rattled investor confidence. Our sunnier view on Serbias long-term prospects is grounded in EU accession providing a policy anchor for the Serbian government. This convergence story requires Serbia to gradually normalise its relationship with Kosovo. However, there is significant tension between the two, and we highlight the potential for unrest in the short term.

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Select License Type

Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£703.81

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