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Slovenia Business Forecast Report Q1 2013

735.14

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Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£735.14

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Market

All Sectors

Report Type

Country Guide

Country

Slovenia

Published

13 December 2012

Number of Pages

49

Report Delivery

Download

Delivery Lead Time

Immediate

Publisher

Business Monitor International

File Format

PDF

We maintain that Slovenia will need an emergency bailout given the dire state of the domestic banking sector. We also forecast the government will miss its fiscal deficit target of 2.9% of GDP in 2013 and forecast the deficit at 3.4% of GDP following a 4.3% shortfall in 2012.

Slovenian consumer price inflation has fallen to 2.7% y-o-y in October after spiking at 3.3% in September and we forecast the rate to fall to a 2.4% by end-2012. This view is supported by our negative growth predictions for 2012, falling oil and gas prices and public sector reforms, which are all likely to drive inflation down.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised down our real GDP growth forecasts for 2012 and 2013 to -1.8% and -0.7% from -1.0% and 1.0% respectively in our last quarterly report. This comes as a result of weaker than expected domestic demand in the first half of 2012 and our belief that the government will request a bailout in 2013.

Risks To Outlook

The biggest risk to the Slovenian economy lies abroad. A major deterioration in the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, or even a greaterthan- expected slowdown in the core eurozone nations, would have severe knock-on effects on the Slovenian economy, not only via depressed trade and investment flows, but also via credit channels and broader economic sentiment.

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+44 (0) 203 086 8600

Select License Type

Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£735.14

Change Currency

GBP EURO USD

Change Currency

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USD

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