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South Africa Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

738.27

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Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£738.27

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Market

All Sectors

Report Type

Country Guide

Country

South Africa

Published

24 October 2012

Number of Pages

45

Report Delivery

Download

Delivery Lead Time

Immediate

Publisher

Business Monitor International

File Format

PDF

BMI sees the South African economy continuing its uneven recovery over the medium term, with real GDP growth forecast to slow to 2.7% in 2012 from an estimated 3.1% in 2011. Although the consumer sector is experiencing a fairly robust resurgence, the supply side is lagging behind, and there are widespread concerns that the recovery is not sufficiently broad-based.

We forecast that South Africas repo rate will be kept steady at 5.50% over the medium term. That said, there is a significant risk that rates will be cut. Growth is slowing, inflation is under control and commentary from the central bank is increasingly dovish. On balance, however, we expect the South African Reserve Bank to hold fire in order to save its ammunition in case the eurozone crisis accelerates. Policy uncertainty is relatively high owing to questions over whether President Jacob Zuma will secure another term in office.

Major Forecast Changes

Following a sharp decline in the price of oil over May and June, we now expect that interest rates will be kept on hold through to the end of 2012. Previously, we expected a 50-basis-point rate hike in the final quarter of the year.

Key Risks To Outlook

A sustained bout of global risk aversion with an attendant sharp outflow of portfolio funds would threaten South Africas precarious balance of payments. There is the possibility of a sudden uptick in domestic political risk, perhaps surrounding the African National Congress elections in December. A sustained period of high oil prices would exacerbate the alreadysizeable current account deficit.

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Select License Type

Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£738.27

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USD

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