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Trinidad and Tobago Business Forecast Report Q1 2013

763.57

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Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£763.57

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Market

All Sectors

Report Type

Country Guide

Country

Trinidad and Tobago

Published

13 December 2012

Number of Pages

35

Report Delivery

Download

Delivery Lead Time

Immediate

Publisher

Business Monitor International

File Format

PDF

Given tepid global growth, ongoing maintenance projects in Trinidad & Tobago (T&T)s energy sector and a weak non-energy sector, we maintain our view that real GDP growth will remain slow in T&T in the coming years. As such, we forecast average growth of 3.1% between 2012 and 2017.

Despite relatively elevated energy prices, we expect T&Ts fiscal accounts to post modest deficits over the medium term due a continued rise in recurrent expenditures.

Moreover, while we expect energy exports to ensure T&Ts current account remains in surplus over the coming years, we continue to highlight that a greater diversification of exports and export markets is necessary to ensuring a robust balance of payments position over the long term.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised down our 2012 real GDP growth forecast for T&T to 1.0% from 1.5%, as we believe continued weak energy sector output and little upside for the non-energy sector means that economic activity will be slower than we previously anticipated. That said, we anticipate a modest acceleration in real GDP growth to 2.5% in 2013 as energy output begins to come back online.

Following backdated changes to our balance of payments data, as well as the downgrade of our real GDP growth forecast, we have seen upgrades to our current account forecasts for the country.

Indeed, we now forecast T&Ts current account surplus to come in at a robust to 17.7% of GDP in 2012 and 17.4% in 2013.

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Select License Type

Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£763.57

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USD

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