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Market |
Automotive and Parts |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
China |
Published |
18 September 2009 |
Number of Pages |
57 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
A record performance for China's automotive industry in H109 has led the report to revise its sales forecast upwards for 2009. A 17% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in sales for the six-month period ensured that China staked its claim as the world's largest automotive market, with sales around 20% higher than those in the US over the same period. Sales for the period were buoyed by the passenger car segment, which posted growth of 25.6% to 4.53mn units compared with a 0.5% decline in sales of commercial vehicles to 1.57mn units. A 50% reduction in purchase tax on cars with engines less than 1.6 litres in size has been cited as a major factor in the growth of passenger car sales.
It is believed that retaining the global lead will require a consistent performance throughout H209 at a time when US sales are turning a corner, elevated further by the passing of the 'cash for clunkers' bill, classified as the Car Allowance Rebate Scheme (CARS). However, we have revised our sales forecast for 2009 on the back of the H109 performance to growth of 15%, which will take sales to 10.8mn units. Our revised forecast now suggests that while growth will slow to around 11% in 2010, this will be sustainable for the remainder of the forecast period. The market's growth opportunities have attracted international majors such as Nissan to invest in further expansion.
Although China has now fallen to second in the Business Environment Ratings for the auto industry in Asia Pacific, its overall score has risen from 66.5 to 67.7. The market's highest scores are still for its production and sales growth potential, based on BMI's revised forecasts. However, even though a low level of vehicle ownership can look tempting in terms of possible growth, the low score for country structure (caused by the large gap that exists between wealthy towns and poorer rural areas) acts as a clear restriction on potential penetration. In terms of China's macroeconomic environment, a healthy long-term political and economic outlook ensures strong scores for the country's risks to realisation of returns.
A strong performance for the industry in H109 also manifested itself in record results for leading manufacturers. Shanghai GM, reported growth of 16.1% for record sales of 288,843 units. June saw the operator's highest ever monthly sales of 60,356 units, up by 5% y-o-y. This prompted Shanghai GM to raise its annual target from 500,000 units to 580,000, which would represent y-o-y growth of over 30% if achieved. The growth of the alternative fuel market in China saw BYD Auto record a 176% y-o-y increase in its sales to 176,795 vehicles in H109. Sales in June included 19 units of the electric plug-in hybrid F3DM model. With the success of its hybrid models, BYD Auto is moving ahead with commercialisation of its full electric vehicles.
Automotive and Parts Company Profiles contain up to date financial, strategic, operational, SWOT analysis and product information on the activities of thousands of automotive and parts companies.
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