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Malaysia Autos Report Q4 2009
Market |
Automotive and Parts |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Malaysia |
Published |
9 September 2009 |
Number of Pages |
44 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
New vehicle sales in Malaysia are forecast to decline to 486,000 units in 2009
It appeared that the plunge in new vehicle sales in Malaysia was bottoming out later in the first half of 2009. New vehicle sales for H109 as a whole totalled 251,092 units, down from 277,973 in the same period of 2008; a drop of 9.7% y-o-y. Against this backdrop, the MAA revised its expectations for 2009 as a whole to a drop in new vehicle sales of 8.8% y-o-y, with an economic recovery expected to kick in during the last quarter of the year. As such, the MAA anticipates that new vehicle sales will register 500,000 units in 2009 as a whole.
The MAA also expects a government stimulus package to support the outlook for the second half of 2009, although we caution that fiscal constraints are likely to militate against significant additional spending.
This said, the report has revised its own forecast for new vehicle sales for 2009 to a less pessimistic scenario than previously expected – we now expect a decline of 9.5% y-o-y to 496,000 units, compared to our earlier expectation of a 13% decline to 476,000 units.
From 2010, we expect a return to positive annual growth in new vehicle sales, albeit at a slow pace initially (2.2% y-o-y in 2010), before stronger growth ranging between 6.5% and 7.0% per annum across the period 2011-2013. Long-term expectations are high for the small car segment, as the MAA envisages a shift towards more fuel-efficient cars. This view has been supported by reports of a JV between France’s PSA Peugeot Citroën and local manufacturer Naza to produce a compact car.
In 2008, the industry saw a strong rise in vehicle production, at a rate of 20% y-o-y, taking total output of new CBUs to over 530,000 units. We predict that the economic downturn will result in a fall in total vehicle production in 2009 to just below 508,000 units, a fall of 4.3% y-o-y. We expect passenger car production to fall by a heavier volume, at a rate of 17% y-o-y, to 402,000 units. This is largely in line with the capacity utilisation seen in the first half of 2009.
Proton registered a pre-tax loss for the fiscal year as a whole (ending on March 31 2009) of MYR338mn, as sales plunged in Q109. Further losses, if encountered, could put the company’s overseas expansionist ambitions in significant jeopardy.
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