Pakistan produced a total of 218,300 vehicles in fiscal year 2009/10 (July to end June), up 32.2% from 165,158 in fiscal year 2008/09, according to figures from the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA). The 2009/10 aggregate production figure is inclusive of 121,647 passenger cars, 3,425 trucks (category 1), 628 buses, 4,053 trucks (category 2), 1,172 jeeps, 15,768 pick-ups and 71,607 tractors. Meanwhile, sales of new vehicles in 2009/10 registered 221,720 units, inclusive of 123,957 passenger cars, 3,620 trucks (category 1), 657 buses, 4,277 trucks (category 2), 1,201 jeeps, 16,496 pickups and 71,512 tractors. The aggregate 2009/10 sales represented a rise of 36% year-on-year (y-o-y). Production largely mirrors sales in Pakistans auto market.

However, while the vehicle sales and production figures in 2009/10 may have appeared impressive in percentage y-o-y terms, they were less impressive when viewed against historical figures (and a very low 2008/09 base). Political turmoil in Pakistan, in tandem with the global economic downturn, delivered a double whammy to car sales and production in the country over FY08/09. Sales of new vehicles in Pakistan fell 34% y-o-y during that fiscal year. The 163,479 new vehicles sold in Pakistan in 2008/09 compared very unfavourably with the 247,160 in fiscal year 2007/08 – and, of course, the 2009/10 aggregate sales figure remained considerably below the 2007/08 base.

Meanwhile, production of new vehicles in FY2008/09 was down 33% y-o-y, from the 247,036 units produced in FY2007/08. As with sales, the year 2007/08 remains a high watermark for vehicle production in Pakistans car industry, as aggregate production in 2009/10 remained nearly 12% below the level of two years earlier. The production and sales figures thus far in 2010 largely reflect the forecasts we made for both variables last quarter. In the first six months of the calendar year, Pakistan produced a total of 67,673 passenger cars (our full-year forecast is for output of 119,512 passenger cars). Sales of new passenger cars, meanwhile, registered 68,788 units in H110, compared with our full-year forecast of 117,428. Although a replication of the H110 sales and production performance across H210 would result in our current fullyear forecasts for both variables being surpassed, sales (and hence production) momentum is likely to slow in the coming months, due to the government increasing General Sales Tax (GST) from 16% to 17% in the budget. As a result, new car sales in July fell 31.6% month-on-month (m-o-m), to 9,796 units, from 14,320 units in June (consumers had rushed to complete purchases towards the end of H110, in anticipation of the rise in GST).