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Poland Autos Report Q4 2009
Market |
Automotive and Parts |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Poland |
Published |
9 September 2009 |
Number of Pages |
70 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Poland’s new car sales have benefited from the weakening currency and the ongoing scrappage schemes in Germany, Slovakia and other EU states
Poland’s new car sales have benefited from the weakening currency and the ongoing scrappage schemes in Germany, Slovakia and other EU states, prompting buyers for these markets to increase vehicle imports from Poland. Total new car sales in the country reached 193,554 units in 7M09 – up marginally 0.75% year-on-year (y-o-y) – of which over 20,000 were bought by foreigners. The Polish Automotive Market Research Institute (Samar) has pointed out a 15.5% difference between domestic sales figures and the number of vehicles registered in the country. Therefore, it is believed the increase in new car sales is attributed to the rising demand from abroad which has almost offset the decrease in domestic vehicle demand.
Indeed, Germany has accounted for one in every three new cars sold across Europe and in H109 the car market increased 26.1%. This should prove good news for neighbouring Poland, which has a major Volkswagen plant in Poznan. In total, Europe’s market for new cars reached 7,425,762 in H109, an 11% increase y-o-y.
Meanwhile, our economic view for Poland predicts real GDP growth of -2.7% this year, to be followed by growth of % in 2010. This means that a slowdown in the domestic market should keep import growth down this year. In the medium to longer term however, we believe that growth in Poland's auto market will be mainly led by increased vehicle ownership, particularly given that we expect a rise in average nominal wages in the long term.
However, the weakening of the zloty, although positive news for the export sector, is making importing cars more expensive for Polish consumers. As a result, imports of used cars in Poland fell 42.4% y-o-y in H109, to 322,000 units, according to estimates from Samar. The fall came after used car sales dropped more than 39% y-o-y, to 64,018 units in June, testifying BMI's view that consumer spending in Poland is likely to reach its bottom during Q2-Q3 this year. Samar estimates non-EU imports reached only 7,903 units, down nearly 48% y-o-y, while those from the EU reached 314,140 units, down 42.3% y-o-y in H109.
Investment has also been thin on the ground so far in 2009. However, in a positive development Fiat’s subsidiary Fiat Powertrain Technologies (FPT) was granted an EU subsidy of PLN100mn (US$34.6mn) in May 2009. This will cover approximately 15% of FPT’s planned investment in its Polish plant in Bielsko-Biala. In total, FPT is looking to spend EUR180mn on a new production line for petrol engines.
The benefits to the local economy should justify the European funding, with the plant expected to employ a further 460 people by 2014.
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