There are no comprehensive and reliable vehicle sales and import statistics available for Qatar, which has only a very small car industry, owing to its low population (1.6mn in 2009). However, some dealerships do release their sales figures, making it possible to get a partial handle on local vehicle demand and the overall direction of sales and imports. Despite reasonably strong (oil and gas sector-led) real economic growth of just over 8% for Qatars economy during 2009,car sales had a relatively difficult year because of the bursting of a speculative bubble, which saw real estate prices crash. This had a significant effect on consumer demand (and access to bank credit) during the year, crimping sales of new vehicles. The signs are that 2010 will be a substantially better year than 2009. Our Macroeconomic team forecasts that overall GDP growth will nearly double this year, to just over 15% (despite a slowdown in the construction sector). Continued strong activity in the oil and gas sector (where prices are once again very buoyant), together with the stabilising effects of a substantial public injection of funds into the banking sector, help to explain the strong anticipated rate of overall economic growth.

A further boost to the economy – and car demand – has been provided by the central bank cutting its key overnight deposit rate by 50bps in early August 2010, which took this key rate down to 1.5% (the first change to the cost of borrowing for more than two years). This should provide a substantial boost to consumer demand – savers will be more inclined to spend (due to lower returns on deposit accounts), while car buyers relying on borrowing to fund (or part-fund) their purchases should be able to access cheaper credit.

This quarter, we introduce an analysis of Qatars truck market. Demand for trucks (particularly second hand trucks) was boosted by the colossal construction boom experienced by the Gulf state, but the end of that boom resulted in a glut of vehicles in this market. Going forward, while government investment in infrastructure will support the construction sector, this is unlikely to generate a quick knock-on recovery for the truck market, due to the extent of the earlier oversupply of vehicles, according to our analysis. Dana Motors was named McLarens official partner for the distribution of the latters first consumeroriented car, the MP4-12C, in August 2010. The McLaren brand and reputation is predicated on its success in Formula 1 racing. The MP4-12C will be available from mid-2011, tapping into a Qatari market that has a large preponderance of ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) consumers. Dana will run a full service centre in Qatar, with technicians receiving training at McLarens UK headquarters. The association with McLaren should boost Danas own brand value.