BMI has revised downwards the forecast for Singapores 2010 vehicle sales again at the mid-point of the year, as sales of small cars below 1.6-litres are still far below the trend for previous years. Our revised forecast for new vehicle registrations in 2010 is for a decline of 18% year-on-year (y-o-y), to a total of 88,938 registrations. The base effect should kick in more strongly from 2011, alongside a gradual acceleration in economic growth to respectable levels for a developed state in 2011-2014. Sales for H110 are still low at 32,334 units, which is 34.8% lower than H109. This is very much out of alignment with our expectations for a strong surge in GDP growth from 2% in 2009 to 12% in 2010, but we believe there is a more industry specific reason behind this, as consumers shift between vehicle segments.

Singapores motorcycle and scooter market registered an uptick in April, as drivers previously lured to the small car segment started to find the cost too much to cope with and returned to two-wheelers. An increase in the cost of a Certificate of Entitlement (COE) to buy a car has risen 32% since March, compared with just 13% for motorcycles. The small car segment, excluding taxis, fell 47% in H110. The motorcycle segment has been declining since 2006 as more entry level cars have appeared on the market, offering more comfort and space for a similar price. In the January to June period, however, sales of twowheelers were down just 4.3%.

The markets decline is still reflected in Singapores 11th place in BMIs Business Environment Ratings for the automotive industry in Asia Pacific with a score of 48.5 from a possible 100. Singapore, along with Thailand, has the highest number of free trade agreements completed for any Asian market. However, in industry terms, the lack of domestic production facilities and the imposition of vehicle quotas which restrict potential sales growth weigh on the markets overall rating. Nevertheless, Singapore has climbed three places since our first ratings were produced.

Although overall market sales do not reflect our bullish view on the Singapore economy, a breakdown of car sales by brand for H110 shows that growth has been largely recorded by premium brands, which is in keeping with higher GDP growth. BMW has leapt from seventh place at the end of 2009 to second, while conversely, Honda Motor has dropped from second to fifth as its sales for H110 fell 66%. Toyota Motor still leads the market at the half-way point, despite a 33% drop in sales.