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Spain Autos Report Q4 2009
Market |
Automotive and Parts |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Spain |
Published |
9 September 2009 |
Number of Pages |
57 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Vehicle production in Spain is forecast to fall by 20% to 2.01mn units in 2009
The car scrappage scheme introduced by the Spanish government in May has begun to pay off as is evident from the controlled fall in vehicle sales in the market during June and July this year. As explained in the Q409 Spain Autos Report, we expect the scrappage scheme to continue for some time this year, meaning that the market is likely to show significant improvements for the remainder of this year, but at the expense of a slower market demand the following year.
Estimates from the Asociación (Nacional) de Fabricantes de Automóviles y Camiones (Anfac) indicate that vehicle sales fell more than 34% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 541,298 units in 7M09, clearly a much moderate fall than the near 53% y-o-y decline seen in 4M09. In view of this positive development, the report maintains its 2009 sales forecast of a 19-20% y-o-y drop in vehicle sales, taking total sales to 1.10mn units this year. However, the concerns of the scrappage scheme pre-empting market demand, thereafter is likely to lead to a further 4-5% contraction in demand, to 1.05mn units by end-2010, according to forecasts.
Meanwhile, we have maintained our forecast of a 20% fall in vehicle production, to 2.01mn units this year, to be followed by a further 1.2% decline in the following year. The latter will be a result of a fall in vehicle sales in the major markets such as Germany and France as well as a continuation of the broader trend of erosion of vehicle production from Spain to low cost Eastern European markets. Clear evidence of the carmakers’ hesitation towards the production competitiveness of Spain can be see from the fact that both Renault and Audi – two of the biggest carmakers in the country – have been seeking government support to make their Spanish operations competitive.
The government, on its part, has shown its support for industry and the existing investments in the country. The same is reflected in the Business Environment Rankings for the autos industry in Europe where Spain ranks seventh, ahead of markets such as France. Spain has improved its score of 55.8 points in the previous quarter to 60.3 points this quarter, mainly due to its increased limits of potential return from improved country risk score.
Nevertheless, almost all carmakers have failed to register any growth in sales during 7M09, though some, such as SEAT have increased their market share. Meanwhile, Citroën, a one time market leader, was fell to third with 49,517 units as Renault took second place with 23,531 units sold during the seven month period.
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