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Australia Infrastructure Report Q3 2009
Market |
Construction |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Australia |
Published |
2 July 2009 |
Number of Pages |
82 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Australia’s construction industry will register a contraction of -1.2% in 2009
We now believe that real growth in Australia’s construction industry will register a contraction of -1.2% in 2009, compared with our previous forecast (made last quarter) of -3.2%. In 2010, we now believe that the sector will undergo real growth of 0.3%, before accelerating to 1.8% real growth in 2011. This compares favourably with our earlier forecasts of -1.1% in 2010 and 0.9% in 2011. As such, the biggest upward revisions apply to 2009 and 2010, when the impact of the new infrastructure package is likely to be most pronounced.
Last quarter we highlighted upside and downside risks to our forecasts. On the upside, we underlined that our core scenario envisaged only a modest recovery of the global economy in 2010, and that if the recovery proved to be more pronounced that year, then privately generated construction activity in Australia should be boosted accordingly. That upside risk remains in place, even with our upwardly revised forecasts for 2010. Additionally, the impact of the newly unveiled budget – funded, as it is, largely by public money, rather than public private partnerships – may be even more pronounced than we are currently forecasting, particularly for 2010 and 2011.
However, on the downside, there is still the risk that the global economic downturn will last longer than we forecast. As such, significant downside risks for 2010 and 2011 remain in place.
Australia’s rating in our Project Finance rankings has improved considerably over the last quarter. The country has moved up the rankings from sixth to third overall. Australia scores very well for the Design and Construction variable (with 71.7 out of 100). However, it registers a weak score in the long-term Commissioning and Operating phase of infrastructure assets (56.0 out of 100). This is due to the volatility of the Australian dollar, in a context where many countries in the region – including China, Malaysia, Japan and Hong Kong – operate fixed or highly managed exchange rates.
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