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Iran Infrastructure Report Q1 2010
Market |
Construction |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Iran |
Published |
5 November 2009 |
Number of Pages |
71 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
In 2009, we expect the construction sector to expand by 0.74% in real terms to reach US$20.61bn, down from the 11% growth seen in 2008. The report forecasts FY2009/10 growth of 1.4% for the economy as a whole, as the global economic crisis puts the brakes on Iran’s recent rapid expansion. Oil prices may have been trending up for the whole of this Iranian year (so far), but turning the economy around will take some time. While the economy continues to expand at these low rates, BMI does not expect the construction sector to return to pre-crisis growth levels. By 2014, we expect the sector to reach a value of US$37.65bn, after posting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just under 4% in real terms between 2009 and 2014. This compares with a CAGR of 12.8% between 2004 and 2008.
However, if international sanctions intensify over Iran’s controversial nuclear programme, the country may begin investing even more resources in constructing a domestic oil refinery industry. In December 2008, the country announced that it will build seven new refineries at a cost of US$27bn by 2013. This programme is becoming even more vital with the international community threatening to penalise companies that sell gasoline to Iran. According to Bloomberg in October 20009, Iran is planning to sell US$555mn in bonds in order to help finance its refinery projects.
In a major development in August 2009, it was announced that India is assessing plans to build a 6,000MW gas-fired power plant in Iran. This will be connected to India via a 1,500km high-voltage transmission line. The project will allow India to access Iran's gas reserves for electricity generation without participating in the pipeline project. According to the Hindustan Times, Indian power company NTPC Ltd and Indian transmission company Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd (PGCIL) are currently assessing the project, which is estimated to cost US$10bn. The 6,000MW gas-fired power plant would be located in Iran, and the majority of electricity generated – around 5,000MW – would then be exported to India.
However, this project is dependent on the stalled multi-billion-dollar gas pipeline project supplying gas from Iran’s South Pars filed to India and Pakistan. According to the Fars News Agency in September 2009, India is once again eager to join the project. Both India and Pakistan are facing energy shortages and see the 2,700km pipeline as a vital supply route. Although talks over the project have been ongoing for some time, India’s interest has waned, leading Pakistan and Iran to threaten to sign a bilateral agreement. However, India is now reportedly showing interest once again in the US$7.4bn project and there is the possibility that a deal could be finalised this year. However, this could reduce the need for India to build a major gas-fired power plant in the country.
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