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Market |
Construction |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Malaysia |
Published |
24 June 2009 |
Number of Pages |
84 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Malaysia's construction sector is forecast to decline by 3.6% in 2009. We have revised down our forecasts for this quarter in light of worse than expected gross fixed capital formation and real capital investment growth figures. In 2008, real capital investment growth was just 1.1%, compared with an earlier estimate of 5.4%. This exacerbates our earlier-expressed fears that promised government investment in infrastructure is often failing to materialise (in part due to the government's funding constraints). We now believe that the real value of Malaysia's construction sector will decline by 3.6% in 2009, compared with our earlier 2009 forecast of a relatively shallow decline of -1.4%. Furthermore, we are now more bearish about the prospects for 2010 than we were during our last update. We now predict that the sector will register real growth of just 0.4% next calendar year, compared with our earlier forecast of 2.1%. Thereafter, we anticipate only very modest real sector growth in 2011 and 2012 of 1.2% and 1.8% respectively.
The principal news in Malaysia’s infrastructure sector in the last quarter is concerning Malaysia's largest power producer, Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB), which is aiming to raise ringgit-denominated loans for funding its US$2bn undersea electricity transmission line (May 2009). The submarine transmission line will transfer power from Sarawak on Borneo to the peninsula. The project includes installation of a 730km high-voltage direct current transmission network. It also includes laying of a 670km undersea cable for the 2,400MW Bakun hydro-electric dam.
This quarter we introduce a profile for IJM Corp. The company, which has interests across a wide range of infrastructure-related sectors and geographic regions, maintained a profit in the last 12-month reporting period. Several factors offer support, including exposure to India’s market, where we anticipate moderately strong economic growth in 2009, in contrast to recessions in many other countries (including Malaysia).
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