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Mexico Infrastructure Report Q3 2010
Market |
Construction |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Mexico |
Published |
21 July 2010 |
Number of Pages |
84 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Major developments over the previous quarter in Mexico indicate that investors are cautiously returning to the Mexican infrastructure market. However, the stronger outlook in our revised forecast scenario is closely followed by downside risks that stem from the core view on weak US consumer demand, which in turn could spell another round of macroeconomic woes for Mexico.
The SCT launched the tender for the concession of the Riviera Maya airport after a delay of two years. It is the first green field public-private partnership (PPP) in Mexico's airport sector, but interest thus far has been low; understandable given the volatile dynamics still underlying the sector.
We highlight the opportunities in the water infrastructure segment, one of the most underinvested in, in recent years. A plethora of new contracts for pipelines, water treatment plants and desalination plants will drive growth in the sector - the main factor for our bullish outlook for the water infrastructure industry.
Revised historical data series dating back to 2003 indicate a much more robust construction sector in terms of industry value than previously estimated. Mexico’s construction industry value in 2009 was MXN797bn (US$59bn), compared to the previous estimate of MXN556bn (US$41bn). Low base effects from 2010 will accentuate industry value growth in 2011, which will in turn moderate in 2012 onwards, in line with the forecasts of a deceleration in gross fixed capital formation real growth.
We believe that the government will continue to push through projects in the pipeline and public works contracts spell opportunities for the infrastructure and construction builders in the country, particularly the majors Empresas ICA and IDEAL, which spearhead Mexico’s infrastructure development.
A core view is being fully mirrored in Mexico that an increasing number of projects will be going after a limited pool of available capital. Mexico's government has expressed great hopes for infrastructure investments in 2010. However, much of these investments are predicated on getting private capital in the sector. Investor interest is reviving, but the available capital available is dwarfed by the government's ambitions.
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