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Ukraine Infrastructure Report Q4 2009
Market |
Construction |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Ukraine |
Published |
1 September 2009 |
Number of Pages |
70 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Ukraine's construction sector is forecast to contract by 16.3% in 2009
Ukraine’s infrastructure sector continues to be subdued, with little sign of actual activity on the ground. In the Q409 Ukraine Infrastructure Report we have new historical data to 2008, with our model forecasting from 2009 and now extended to 2014 .
The historical data show that Ukraine’s construction industry entered into a deep contraction in 2008 (-11.23% y-o-y) in real terms, which – despite high inflation being a key factor – has also knocked off some of the value in nominal terms compared with our estimate. As such, we are now forecasting 2009 growth to look a little better than previously forecast, with the industry contracting by 16.27%. However, this is not a reflection of increased activity, as in nominal terms we believe it will now only reach UAH35.5bn (US$4bn) in 2009, from a previous forecast of UAH43.48bn in 2009 .
As with last quarter, there continued to be limited activity in the infrastructure sector this quarter .
Although a number of projects have been announced, few specific details have been noted, and no large new contracts have been awarded .
In the transport sector a number of Ukraine’s ports have announced large investment plans. However, with trade activity down, revenues down, and limited public or private money available, the plans seem fairly ambitious. A lack of funds is also hampering the Kiev metro extension, with the new subway stations now not likely to be open until 2010. Airports continue to be upgraded in the country, in line with preparations for the UEFA Euro 2012 tournament, which Ukraine is co-hosting with Poland. In July the government announced plans to launch an auction for the Lviv airport upgrade. Roads are also a focus of investment, with two large road projects approved by the government: a second ring road around Kiev and the Odessa-Reni road. Both will be awarded on a concession basis .
In the utilities sector, investment pledges have been registered by a number of international companies .
Korea Electric Power Corporation announced plans to co-operate with Ukraine on nuclear power and Korlea Invest Holding Company announced plans to invest EUR2bn in energy projects, including power plants .
The limited actual activity in the sector underlines our pessimistic forecasts for the construction industry’s continued contraction in 2009 and 2010. There is little upside risk to these forecasts, apart perhaps from the potential for a last-minute rush of activity as the country prepares for hosting the UEFA 2012 tournament. On the downside, the political and economic environment continues to look bleak. This is in turn putting off potential investors, reducing access to loans and limiting the government’s ability to invest in infrastructure.
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