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Cigarettes in Germany

Germany Cigarettes Market: New insights

Cigarettes in Germany recovered in 2014 from a decline in 2013 in both volume and current value terms. However, this recovery was due to a seasonal effect, namely the cold winter of 2013 and the warm winter of 2014. Thus, the positive performance in 2014 should not be seen as an indicator that the long-term decline in cigarette consumption in Germany has come to a halt.

Cigarettes in Germany saw a steep fall in 2013, both in terms of volume and value sales. Retail volume sales fell to 79.6 billion sticks, down 5% on the previous year. According to trade contacts, the cold winter was the main cause of the decline. Up to mid-March the weather was snowy throughout Germany, meaning smoking outdoors was uncomfortable. The dwindling smoking population and the price increases seen in June were among other factors behind the decline.

The cigarette category in Germany in 2012 continued on its negative trajectory, which had been interrupted in 2011 due to exceptional factors, most importantly the strong economic growth that had been seen during that year and the good weather in spring and autumn. In 2012, retail sales of cigarettes amounted to 83.4 billion, down 1% on the previous year. The decline in cigarette sales was a consequence of the dwindling smoking population and growth of alternative tobacco products such as smoking tobacco, cigarillos and also e-cigarettes.

Philip Morris maintained its leading position in 2012. Its premium brand Marlboro remained the leading brand in cigarettes in 2012 although its share declined due to the growing price-sensitivity of consumers. However, the company's value-for-money brands L&M and Chesterfield registered positive volume growth.

In spite of the planned tax rises every year to 2016, cigarette sales volumes are not expected to decline drastically over the 2012-2017 period. This will be mainly due to the small tax rises that the government has introduced every year, and so the gradual nature of the tax rises is thus expected to have less noticeable effect on consumer demand. The marketing activities of the leading cigarette manufacturers will also contribute to maintaining stable demand.

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Cigarettes in Germany

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