TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2
Summary Market Level - Tobacco 2
Summary category level - Cigarettes 3
Summary category level - Cigars and cigarillos 4
Summary category level - Loose tobacco 5
Chapter 2 INTRODUCTION 6
What is this report about? 6
How to use this report 6
Market Definition 7
Chapter 3 MARKET OVERVIEW 20
Value Analysis, 2003?08 20
Value Analysis, 2008?13 21
Value Analysis, US$ 2003?08 23
Value Analysis, US$ 2008?13 23
Volume Analysis, 2003?08 24
Volume Analysis, 2008?13 25
Company and Brand Share Analysis 27
Distribution Analysis 30
Expenditure & consumption per capita 32
Chapter 4 LEADING COMPANY PROFILES 35
Philip Morris International Inc. 35
PT Gudang Garam Tbk 37
Chapter 5 CATEGORY ANALYSIS - CIGARETTES 39
Value Analysis, 2003?08 39
Value Analysis, 2008?13 40
Value Analysis, US$ 2003?08 42
Value Analysis, US$ 2008?13 42
Volume Analysis, 2003?08 44
Volume Analysis, 2008?13 45
Company and Brand Share Analysis 47
Distribution Analysis 49
Expenditure & consumption per capita 51
Chapter 6 CATEGORY ANALYSIS - CIGARS AND CIGARILLOS 54
Value Analysis, 2003?08 54
Value Analysis, 2008?13 55
Value Analysis, US$ 2003?08 57
Value Analysis, US$ 2008?13 57
Volume Analysis, 2003?08 59
Volume Analysis, 2008?13 60
Company and Brand Share Analysis 62
Distribution Analysis 65
Expenditure & consumption per capita 67
Chapter 7 CATEGORY ANALYSIS - LOOSE TOBACCO 70
Value Analysis, 2003?08 70
Value Analysis, 2008?13 71
Value Analysis, US$ 2003?08 73
Value Analysis, US$ 2008?13 73
Volume Analysis, 2003?08 75
Volume Analysis, 2008?13 76
Company and Brand Share Analysis 79
Distribution Analysis 82
Expenditure & consumption per capita 84
Chapter 8 COUNTRY COMPARISON 87
Value 87
Volume 92
Market Share 97
Chapter 9 NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT 98
Product launches over time 98
Recent product launches 100
Chapter 10 INDONESIA SOCIOECONOMIC PROFILE 101
Country Overview 101
Key Facts 103
Political Overview 104
Economic Overview 105
Chapter 11 INDONESIA MACROECONOMIC PROFILE 106
Macroeconomic Indicators 106
Chapter 12 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 111
Methodology overview 111
Secondary research 112
Market modeling 113
Primary research 114
Data finalization 115
Ongoing research 115
Chapter 13 APPENDIX 116
Future readings 116
How to contact experts in your industry 116
Disclaimer 116
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Indonesia tobacco value and value forecast, 2003?13 (IDR m, nominal prices) 22
Figure 2: Indonesia tobacco volume and volume forecast, 2003?13 (Kg/Pieces m) 26
Figure 3: Indonesia tobacco distribution channels, by value, 2007?08 (%) 31
Figure 4: Indonesia cigarettes value and value forecast, 2003?13 (IDR m, nominal prices) 41
Figure 5: Indonesia cigarettes category growth comparison, by value, 2003?13 43
Figure 6: Indonesia cigarettes volume and volume forecast, 2003?13 (Pieces m) 46
Figure 7: Indonesia cigarettes category growth comparison, by volume, 2003?13 46
Figure 8: Indonesia cigarettes distribution channels, by value, 2007?08 (%) 50
Figure 9: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos value and value forecast, 2003?13 (IDR m, nominal prices) 56
Figure 10: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos category growth comparison, by value, 2003?13 58
Figure 11: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos volume and volume forecast, 2003?13 (Pieces m) 61
Figure 12: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos category growth comparison, by volume, 2003?13 61
Figure 13: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos company share, by value, 2007?08 (%) 63
Figure 14: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos distribution channels, by value, 2007?08 (%) 66
Figure 15: Indonesia loose tobacco value and value forecast, 2003?13 (IDR m, nominal prices) 72
Figure 16: Indonesia loose tobacco category growth comparison, by value, 2003?13 74
Figure 17: Indonesia loose tobacco volume and volume forecast, 2003?13 (Kg m) 77
Figure 18: Indonesia loose tobacco category growth comparison, by volume, 2003?13 78
Figure 19: Indonesia loose tobacco company share, by value, 2007?08 (%) 80
Figure 20: Indonesia loose tobacco distribution channels, by value, 2007?08 (%) 83
Figure 21: Global tobacco market split (value terms, 2008) – Top 5 countries 88
Figure 22: Global tobacco market value, 2003–08 (Top 5 countries) 91
Figure 23: Global tobacco market split (volume terms, 2008) – Top 5 countries 93
Figure 24: Global tobacco market volume, 2003–08 (Top 5 countries) 96
Figure 25: Map of Indonesia 103
Figure 26: Annual data review process 112
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Tobacco category definitions 8
Table 2: Tobacco distribution channels 9
Table 3: Indonesia tobacco value, 2003?08 (IDR m, nominal prices) 20
Table 4: Indonesia tobacco value forecast, 2008?13 (IDR m, nominal prices) 21
Table 5: Indonesia tobacco value, 2003?08 (US$ m nominal prices) 23
Table 6: Indonesia tobacco value forecast, 2008?13 (US$ m nominal prices) 23
Table 7: Indonesia tobacco volume, 2003?08 (Kg/Pieces m) 24
Table 8: Indonesia tobacco volume forecast, 2008?13 (Kg/Pieces m) 25
Table 9: Indonesia tobacco brand share, by value, 2007?08 (%) 27
Table 10: Indonesia tobacco value, by brand 2007?08 (IDR m nominal prices) 28
Table 11: Indonesia tobacco company share by value, 2007?08 (%) 29
Table 12: Indonesia tobacco value, by company, 2007?08 (IDR m nominal prices) 29
Table 13: Indonesia tobacco distribution channels, by value, 2007?08 (%) 30
Table 14: Indonesia tobacco value, by distribution channel, 2007?08 (IDR m nominal prices) 30
Table 15: Indonesia tobacco expenditure per capita, 2003?08 (IDR, nominal prices) 32
Table 16: Indonesia tobacco forecast expenditure per capita, 2008?13 (IDR, nominal prices) 32
Table 17: Indonesia tobacco expenditure per capita, 2003?08 (US$ nominal prices) 33
Table 18: Indonesia tobacco forecast expenditure per capita, 2008?13 (US$ nominal prices) 33
Table 19: Indonesia tobacco consumption per capita, 2003?08 (Kg/Pieces) 34
Table 20: Indonesia tobacco forecast consumption per capita, 2008?13 (Kg/Pieces) 34
Table 21: Philip Morris International Inc. Key Facts 35
Table 22: PT Gudang Garam Tbk Key Facts 37
Table 23: Indonesia cigarettes value, 2003?08 (IDR m, nominal prices) 39
Table 24: Indonesia cigarettes value forecast, 2008?13 (IDR m, nominal prices) 40
Table 25: Indonesia cigarettes value, 2003?08 (US$ m nominal prices) 42
Table 26: Indonesia cigarettes value forecast, 2008?13 (US$ m nominal prices) 42
Table 27: Indonesia cigarettes volume, 2003?08 (Pieces m) 44
Table 28: Indonesia cigarettes volume forecast, 2008?13 (Pieces m) 45
Table 29: Indonesia cigarettes brand share, by value, 2007?08 (%) 47
Table 30: Indonesia cigarettes value, by brand 2007?08 (IDR m nominal prices) 47
Table 31: Indonesia cigarettes company share by value, 2007?08 (%) 48
Table 32: Indonesia cigarettes value, by company, 2007?08 (IDR m nominal prices) 48
Table 33: Indonesia cigarettes distribution channels, by value, 2007?08 (%) 49
Table 34: Indonesia cigarettes value, by distribution channel, 2007?08 (IDR m nominal prices) 49
Table 35: Indonesia cigarettes expenditure per capita, 2003?08 (IDR, nominal prices) 51
Table 36: Indonesia cigarettes forecast expenditure per capita, 2008?13 (IDR, nominal prices) 51
Table 37: Indonesia cigarettes expenditure per capita, 2003?08 (US$ nominal prices) 52
Table 38: Indonesia cigarettes forecast expenditure per capita, 2008?13 (US$ nominal prices) 52
Table 39: Indonesia cigarettes consumption per capita, 2003?08 (Pieces) 53
Table 40: Indonesia cigarettes forecast consumption per capita, 2008?13 (Pieces) 53
Table 41: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos value, 2003?08 (IDR m, nominal prices) 54
Table 42: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos value forecast, 2008?13 (IDR m, nominal prices) 55
Table 43: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos value, 2003?08 (US$ m nominal prices) 57
Table 44: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos value forecast, 2008?13 (US$ m nominal prices) 57
Table 45: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos volume, 2003?08 (Pieces m) 59
Table 46: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos volume forecast, 2008?13 (Pieces m) 60
Table 47: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos brand share, by value, 2007?08 (%) 62
Table 48: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos value, by brand 2007?08 (IDR m nominal prices) 62
Table 49: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos company share by value, 2007?08 (%) 64
Table 50: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos value, by company, 2007?08 (IDR m nominal prices) 64
Table 51: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos distribution channels, by value, 2007?08 (%) 65
Table 52: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos value, by distribution channel, 2007?08 (IDR m nominal prices) 65
Table 53: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos expenditure per capita, 2003?08 (IDR, nominal prices) 67
Table 54: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos forecast expenditure per capita, 2008?13 (IDR, nominal prices) 67
Table 55: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos expenditure per capita, 2003?08 (US$ nominal prices) 68
Table 56: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos forecast expenditure per capita, 2008?13 (US$ nominal prices) 68
Table 57: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos consumption per capita, 2003?08 (Pieces) 69
Table 58: Indonesia cigars and cigarillos forecast consumption per capita, 2008?13 (Pieces) 69
Table 59: Indonesia loose tobacco value, 2003?08 (IDR m, nominal prices) 70
Table 60: Indonesia loose tobacco value forecast, 2008?13 (IDR m, nominal prices) 71
Table 61: Indonesia loose tobacco value, 2003?08 (US$ m nominal prices) 73
Table 62: Indonesia loose tobacco value forecast, 2008?13 (US$ m nominal prices) 73
Table 63: Indonesia loose tobacco volume, 2003?08 (Kg m) 75
Table 64: Indonesia loose tobacco volume forecast, 2008?13 (Kg m) 76
Table 65: Indonesia loose tobacco brand share, by value, 2007?08 (%) 79
Table 66: Indonesia loose tobacco value, by brand 2007?08 (IDR m nominal prices) 79
Table 67: Indonesia loose tobacco company share by value, 2007?08 (%) 81
Table 68: Indonesia loose tobacco value, by company, 2007?08 (IDR m nominal prices) 81
Table 69: Indonesia loose tobacco distribution channels, by value, 2007?08 (%) 82
Table 70: Indonesia loose tobacco value, by distribution channel, 2007?08 (IDR m nominal prices) 82
Table 71: Indonesia loose tobacco expenditure per capita, 2003?08 (IDR, nominal prices) 84
Table 72: Indonesia loose tobacco forecast expenditure per capita, 2008?13 (IDR, nominal prices) 84
Table 73: Indonesia loose tobacco expenditure per capita, 2003?08 (US$ nominal prices) 85
Table 74: Indonesia loose tobacco forecast expenditure per capita, 2008?13 (US$ nominal prices) 85
Table 75: Indonesia loose tobacco consumption per capita, 2003?08 (Kg) 86
Table 76: Indonesia loose tobacco forecast consumption per capita, 2008?13 (Kg) 86
Table 77: Global tobacco market value, 2008 87
Table 78: Global tobacco market split (value terms (US$ m), 2008) – Top 5 countries 90
Table 79: Global tobacco market volume, 2008 92
Table 80: Global tobacco market split (volume terms, 2008) – Top 5 countries 95
Table 81: Leading players - Top 5 countries 97
Table 82: Indonesia tobacco new product launches reports, by company (Top 5 companies), 2008 98
Table 83: Indonesia tobacco new product launches SKUs, by company (Top 5 companies), 2008 98
Table 84: Indonesia tobacco new product launches (reports), by flavor and fragrances 2008 99
Table 85: Indonesia tobacco new product launches (reports), by Ingredients 2008 99
Table 86: Indonesia tobacco new product launches (reports), by Package tags or Claims 2008 100
Table 87: Indonesia tobacco new product launches (reports) - Recent 5 launches (2008) 100
Table 88: Indonesia Key Facts 103
Table 89: Indonesia population, by age group, 2003?08 (millions) 106
Table 90: Indonesia population forecast, by age group, 2008?13 (millions) 107
Table 91: Indonesia population, by gender, 2003?08 (millions) 107
Table 92: Indonesia population forecast, by gender, 2008?13 (millions) 108
Table 93: Indonesia nominal GDP, 2003?08 (IDR bn, nominal prices) 108
Table 94: Indonesia nominal GDP forecast, 2008?13 (IDR bn, nominal prices) 108
Table 95: Indonesia real GDP, 2003?08 (IDR bn, 2000 prices) 109
Table 96: Indonesia real GDP forecast, 2008?13 (IDR bn, 2000 prices) 109
Table 97: Indonesia real GDP, 2003?08 (US$ bn, 2000 prices) 109
Table 98: Indonesia real GDP forecast, 2008?13 (US$ bn, 2000 prices) 110
Table 99: Indonesia consumer price index, 2003?08 (2000=100) 110
Table 100: Indonesia consumer price index, 2008?13 (2000=100) 110