Belarus Defence and Security Report 2009

During 2008 the Lukashenko government continued its ‘pendular’ policy of trying to manage relations with Russia to the east and the European Union to the west so as to extract the most favourable political and economic deal possible. In October 2008, shortly after the September parliamentary elections, the EU said it was lifting travel sanctions against senior Belarus officials for a six month period, during which it would monitor progress towards a ‘full-scale political dialogue’. The Minsk government responded that it wanted sanctions to be eliminated completely after April 2009 and for other additional steps to be taken, including the restoration of the EU’s Generalised System of Preferences (GSP), wider trade liberalisation and an emphasis on the ‘economic component’ in collaboration between the two sides. While seeking an opening towards the EU, the President remained opposed to NATO. In an interview with AFP news agency in November 2008 he accused NATO of provoking a ‘mini arms race’. ‘You fly NATO planes near our country’s borders. Why? We begin strengthening our air defences. This is pushing a mini arms race’ he said. The President added that Belarus was considering buying short-range Russian Iskander missiles to step up its air defences but that this should not cause concern in Europe. In terms of relations with Russia, there were also a series of issues. One was Minsk’s ongoing concern over the likely increase in gas prices charged by Gazprom. Furthermore, while Belarus appeared lined up to support Moscow’s position opposing the US missile shield in Eastern Europe, its position on the Russian invasion of Georgia in August appeared more ambiguous. The Belarus Parliament has failed to respond to various requests from Russia that it formally recognise the separatist, Russian-backed Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Despite Belarus’ poor diplomatic and military relationship with the US and the EU, its external and internal security remained reasonably stable. The opposition to the government remained relatively weak, cowed by the weight of the security services and with only tenuous unity among the different political groupings. Strong economic growth had to some extent softened anti-government protests over the lack of democracy but with a hard landing in prospect for 2009, new strains could be expected to emerge.

Belarus’ arms trade continued to be scrutinised by the international community. Reports of arms sales to rogue or strongly anti-US states (among them Venezuela and Iran) were watched closely in Western capitals. Suspicions had emerged after Belarus purchased the technology without the necessary support systems or the need. The international community still regards Belarus as a prominent conduit for illegal arms trading.

The Belarusian defence industry continues to be dominated by state-run defence enterprises such as Beltechexport and Belvneshpromservis. The latter is a significant player in Belarusian arms exports and modernisation.