Central Asia Defence and Security Report Q1 2009

Executive Summary ....................5
Central Asia Political SWOT............................... 6
Central Asia Security SWOT................................ 6
Central Asian Defence Industry SWOT................ 7
Central Asia Political Overview ...............................8
Kazakhstan ............................. 8
Uzbekistan ............................ 10
Tajikistan .............................. 12
Turkmenistan ........................ 14
Security Risk Ratings ...............15
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings............................ 15
Table: Central And Eastern Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability Index .................... 16
Regional Security Profile...... 16
Table: Central Asia Insurgent Groups............... 16
Central Asia Conflict Risk Rating ...................... 17
Central Asia Terrorism Risk Rating................... 17
Central Asia Physical Safety Risk ...................... 17
Security Overview .....................18
Islamist Extremism And Transnational Threats .............................. 18
Internal Instability ................ 22
Inter-Regional Competition And Co-Operation.............................. 22
Regional Organisations ........ 23
Land Borders ........................ 23
Water ....... 24
Natural Resources ................ 24
Regional Military Relations With Russia, China And The US......... 25
The US Presence................... 25
Operation Enduring Freedom............................ 26
Russia’s And China In Central Asia .................. 27
Armed Forces And Government Spending ..........29
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2006e (including conscripted, ‘000)........................... 29
Armed Forces, Kazakhstan ................................ 29
Armed Forces, Kyrgyzstan................................. 31
Armed Forces, Tajikistan...... 32
Armed Forces, Turkmenistan............................. 33
Armed Forces, Uzbekistan ................................. 34
International Deployments................................. 35
Table: Central Asia Foreign Developments....... 35
Weapons of Mass Destruction............................ 35
Market Overview........................37
Arms Trade Overview........... 38
Procurement Trends And Developments............ 39
Industry Forecast Scenario .......40
Kazakhstan ........................... 40
Table: Kazakhstan’S Defence Sector, 2004-2013 ........................... 40
Table – Central Asia – Defence Expenditure, 2001-2007 (constant 2000 prices, US$bn) ......................... 41
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario ........................ 41
Kazakhstan ........................... 41
Table: Kazakhstan – Macroeconomic Activity, 2005-2013............. 44
Kyrgyzstan ............................ 44
Table: Kyrgyzstan – Macroeconomic Activity, 2005-2013.............. 46
Tajikistan ................................... 46
Table: Tajikistan – Macroeconomic Activity, 2005-2013................ 48
Turkmenistan ............................. 48
Table: Turkmenistan – Macroeconomic Activity, 2005-2013.......... 50
Uzbekistan ................................. 50
Table: Uzbekistan – Macroeconomic Activity, 2005-2013.............. 52
Company Profiles......................53
Chkalov Tashkent Industrial Aircraft Association (TAPiCH) .......... 53
GE International Operations ............................. 54
BMI Forecast Modelling............55
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ........ 55
Defence Industry................... 55
Sources ......... 56