Central Asia Defence and Security Report Q3 2009

All five of the Central Asian republics – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – were formerly part of the Soviet Union. Even though each is now independent, Russia still casts a long shadow.

First of all, Russia is the dominant economic power in the region. The slowdown in the Russian economy has flow-on effects in each of the Central Asian economies. One of the most obvious and direct impacts relates to the importance of remittances from expatriate workers. Before, the financial crisis remittances represented, for instance, 20-25% of GDP in Kyrgystan and Tajikistan. In 2009, many of these workers are having to return home.

Secondly, Russia is the dominant military power in the region. Its adventure in South Ossetia had a chilling effect on its neighbours, all of whom are now even more wary not to antagonise the bear. Short, sharp military campaigns that assert a nation’s power and importance are often popular at home. Even though the action in South Ossetia was criticised abroad, it played well to the domestic audience.

While each of the Central Asian republics is looking to become less tied to Russia and to build other bilateral ties, each is being very careful not to give offence.

Relationships among the five republics themselves are complex and quite often strained. There is a series of overlapping dependencies regarding water, electric power and natural resources.

The region’s most pressing dispute remains unresolved. Because all five states rely on the of the Amu Darya river, the countries upstream carry considerable leverage on the states downstream. The upstream states have agreed to dam the water in summer, preventing flooding downstream, in exchange for energy exports from the downstream states in winter. Disputes over the joint management of this system have, however, led to Uzbekistan cutting off energy supplies to Kazakhstan as a retaliatory measure. As many of the region’s economies are reliant on agriculture, e.g. Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, water supplies continue to be of vital concern to all governments. Regional disputes over water management are likely to continue until a viable, long-term solution can be found.

The increasing competition for Central Asian energy and oil and gas reserves was another driver of political and security developments during the fourth quarter of 2006. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have sizeable uranium deposits, and Tajikistan has the possibility of generating hydro-electric power.

Kazakhstan’s crude oil reserves are highly sought after, producing 1.36mn barrels per day (b/d), with Uzbekistan producing 75,000b/d and Turkmenistan 260,000b/d. However, what is most sought after at present is access to natural gas reserves, of which Turkmenistan exports the most, with the majority going to Russia.

To date, oil has been the most valuable commodity. In the long term, it is more likely to be water, and the largest water resources are held by the economically and militarily vulnerable republic of Uzbekistan.

In the immediate future, it is expected that economic questions will be paramount.

Viewed from outside the region, the key issues are, firstly, the strategic location adjoining Afghanistan, near the Middle East and lying on the point where Russian, Chinese and US areas of interest intersect and, secondly, to the position of Central Asia on the transhipment route for heroin out of Afghanistan.

This quarter, we have introduced a significant new aspect to BMI's defence reports, which is the City Terrorism Rating (CTR). This assesses the risk of a terrorist attack. The CTR takes into account the overall BMI Terrorism Rating for the country in question. It also incorporates the 'prevalence' of terrorism, which recognises the frequency of attacks, and whether the city is a target for terrorists. The CTR also recognises the 'threat' of terrorism in terms of the likely numbers of victims and the ability of groups to launch sustained campaigns. In Central Asia we assess the CTRs for Astana and Almaty (Kazakhstan), Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan), Dushanbe (Tajikistan) and Tashkent (Uzbekistan). With the exception of Dushanbe, which is ranked 30th out of the 32 cities rated in the Central and Eastern Europe region, the others all rank in the top half. Astana ranks highest in 8th place.