| Market Research A to Z | Company Profiles A to Z | Register | Contact Us |
| +44 (0) 203 086 8600 Call us on |
China Defence and Security Report Q4 2009
Market |
Defence |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
China |
Published |
3 November 2009 |
Number of Pages |
101 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
China presents perhaps the most complex strategic environment anywhere in the world, with internal and external pressures on a number of levels. Even so, China, like almost everywhere else, faces a landscape dominated by economic considerations for the foreseeable future.
In a sign that suggests that Beijing’s stimulus efforts are increasingly taking effect, China’s real GDP staged an impressive rebound in Q209 to expand by 7.9% y-o-y, compared with 6.1% growth registered in the previous quarter. We are now expecting real output to expand by 8.1% this year and by 8.8% in 2010.
Underscoring our more bullish view on China, industrial production maintained its upward trend in June, rising by 10.7% y-o-y following an 8.9% increase in May, while consumption levels also showed a marked improvement. Total retail sales in the January-June period grew by 15.0% y-o-y to reach CNY5.9bn (US$859.4bn), which if adjusted for price factors, was actually 16.6% greater than the previous year.
On the other hand, exports continue to tumble at a rapid rate, with outbound shipments falling by 21.4% y-o-y in June (which pushed the year-to-date growth figure to -21.7%) as external demand remained sluggish. Although we are anticipating trade volumes to pick up in H209, we are anticipating this rebound to be gentle, and as such expect the export sector to remain under pressure, meaning that deflationary pressures are likely to persist.
Internally, political pressures are continuing to grow. With no outlet for citizens to voice their grievances under one-party rule, the threat of further violence remains firmly on the cards, particularly given the country’s ongoing economic woes. The violent riot that took place in the province of Xinjiang on July 5 has once again underscored the rising threat of political instability in China.
One of the biggest – though least discussed – ‘wild cards’ that could rear its head is dramatic political upheaval in China. When real GDP growth was in excess of 10%, Chinese citizens largely refrained from greater calls for democracy and overlooked the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s shortcomings in return for the rising prosperity generated by stellar economic expansion. However, with growth having slowed sharply, the Chinese populace is no longer willing to be so forgiving. Change can perhaps be deferred, but not indefinitely.
China has developed an enormous defence industry, with approximately 2.5mn to 3mn employees engaged in top-tier enterprises. A major reform policy has been pursued since the 1980s in a bid to ‘convert’ the monolithic, state-run military-industrial complex by producing civilian products through the defence industry. The conversion is intended to improve the efficiency of the industry and make use of redundant facilities, as well as aid China’s military modernisation programme. The Commission on Science Industry and Technology for National Defence (COSTIND) has stated that there are 450 defence production lines now producing civilian goods.
The modernisation is particularly significant, as the military doctrine has shifted away from the Maoist ‘people’s war’ towards power projection.
Last Viewed
China Defence and Security Report Q4 2009Michaniki S.A. - Strategic Analysis Review
Financial Markets Business Update H2 2009
Eurocash S.A. - Financial Analysis Review
Japan Defence and Security Report Q1 2010
Become an Affiliate
Do you manage an industry specific website or blog? Are you looking to monetise your web traffic further? Are you a B2B website?
Why not offer your visitors industry specific strategic market reports and company profiles? Our Affiliate Program enables you to provide quality content on your website and to earn money from passing on visitors to our website. If a sale is made from your visitor, you earn commission (a fixed percentage of the price of a product).
Custom Research
Cannot find what you need? We can tailor a report for you. Complete the Custom Research Form and we will provide a quote.
News
L-3 Broadens Presence in Military EO/IR With Kollmorgen Buy
Military simulation market worth nearly $9bn
Soldier modernisation market worth $440 million
IED Defence Market 2009-2018: Billions spent on countering IEDs
Market Insights
Currently there are no Market Insights in this sector.
